SCOTLAND’S economy remains stuck in recession, one of the country’s leading economic think-tanks declares today, in what it describes as a continuing “after-shock” of the 2008 financial crash.
The country will largely miss out on the Olympic bounce which saw the UK economy as a whole record 1% growth in the third quarter of this year.
In its latest commentary on the Scottish economy, the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University makes a sharp downwards revision of its short-term expectations, putting growth at -0.1% for the whole of 2012, compared to its previous estimate of +0.4%.
It also revises down its growth forecast for 2013, which it believes will now be 1.3%, down from 1.6%. This, however, is expected to be higher than the growth figures for the UK as a whole.
In its commentary, published this morning, the Institute declares: “There are some straws in the wind but it is difficult to escape from the conclusion that the UK economy is largely stagnating, or bumping along the bottom, despite the evidence of a move out of recession.
The commentary declares: “It is not until 2014 that we see much pick-up in growth.”
On employment, the Institute believes the number of jobs will fall during 2012 by around 25,000, lost mostly in the construction and service sectors.
It predicts that the nimers of unemployed will rise to 225,134 by the end of 2012, grow to 234,603 by the end of 2013, before falling back to 228,740 as growth and job creation pick up during 2014.