Scotland's growth has downside too

Published on Tuesday 22 January 2008 20:07

THE population of Scotland will grow by a quarter of a million over the next 25 years, according to the latest figures from the Registrar General. This is definitive proof that the key demographic trend in Scotland has changed direction.

For most of the past 15 years, the population was being predicted to fall as the birth rate declined – a general pattern across Europe. Since 2000, immigration into Scotland has delayed this effect. Now we know the upturn in numbers is permanent. This will boost economic growth and provide a bigger tax base to support the elderly. It also justifies the more liberal attitude of Scottish administrations to encouraging immigration compared to Westminster.

However, the new figures still indicate problems. The population is growing very fast in some areas (Edinburgh and the Highlands) but continuing to fall sharply in others (Glasgow). This disparity will place a severe burden on infrastructure and the public services. The elderly population is predicted to rise faster than ever – another factor which will impact on the public purse if average economic growth does not rise faster in Scotland. Above all, the low birthrate means we are vulnerable still to the population trend shifting to negative at some time in the future.

The bottom line is that Scotland cannot rely on a new generation of European immigrants to bail it out of trouble.