Romney emerges at the head of the Republican pack

Published on Tuesday 24 May 2011 16:41

Mitt Romney is emerging as the man to catch in the narrowing Republican presidential field: he has a clear head start in fundraising, organisation and experience despite vulnerabilities that still might undo him.

With Indiana governor Mitch Daniels the latest respected Republican to forgo a candidacy, many party insiders say the field is largely set - and Mr Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and 2002 Olympic Games organiser, is in front.

"It's Romney's to lose," said Scott Reed, a Republican consultant who managed Bob Dole's unsuccessful presidential campaign in 1996. Mr Reed said Mr Romney's biggest advantages are his personal wealth, fundraising know-how and experience as a 2008 contender, when John McCain won the nomination.

Mr Reed said: "He knows from a difficult experience how not to waste time and how not to try to be all things to all people."

If Mr Romney's name is well known, so are his shortcomings. As Massachusetts governor he supported legalised abortion, gay rights and gun control - all anathema to many Republicans. He reversed those positions when he ran for president. He also championed a state healthcare law that requires residents to obtain insurance. Conservatives despise a similar feature in the Democrats' 2010 federal health law.

Unease about Mr Romney's record and consistency could give an opening to others.

"The real battle now is who will be the conservative alternative to Romney," Mr Reed said.

Campaign veterans say Mr Romney's likeliest challengers for now are two former governors with solid CVs but little name recognition and no experience as presidential candidates: Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Jon Huntsman of Utah.

Mr Pawlenty formally announced his candidacy on Monday in Iowa. He is casting himself as the candidate willing to tell the country hard truths, and, underscoring that point, he bluntly told corn-dependent Iowa that its prized federal subsidies for ethanol should be phased out.

Mr Huntsman, who just finished a stint as ambassador to China, is spending five days campaigning in New Hampshire, which holds its primary shortly after Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses in February.

The next tier of candidates includes the well-known Newt Gingrich, who was House Speaker in the mid-1990s. Party insiders say Mr Gingrich's legacy of bombastic statements and messy divorces gives him a steep hill to climb.

These party activists give even slimmer chances to other contenders, such as former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.

Mr Pawlenty, unlike Mr Romney and Mr Huntsman, lacks the personal wealth to sustain a campaign for weeks or months without major victories to trigger big donations.

"Pawlenty has to win in Iowa," said Republican strategist Rich Galen.That could allow him to survive the next three contests: New Hampshire, where Romney should be strong; Nevada, bordering Mr Huntsman's home state of Utah, and South Carolina, where Mr Gingrich or a lesser-known social conservative might break through.

Mr Pawlenty would have to rack up victories after that. But a strategy of being everyone's second choice might allow him to outlast Mr Romney in the spring of 2012.

Many Republican officials are lukewarm about Mr Romney. Still, he is the best known of the party's current candidates. According to a recent poll, 66 per cent of Republicans nationwide view him favourably, 22 per cent unfavourably and 11 per cent have no opinion. His positive numbers are higher among self-described conservatives (75 per cent favourable) and "strong" Republicans (81 per cent favourable).

Perhaps the biggest uncertainty is Sarah Palin. The former Alaska governor and 2008 vice-presidential nominee draws crowds and controversy everywhere she goes. Her approval ratings have fallen in recent months, and party insiders think that she, like 2008 Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee, is unlikely to surrender her lucrative TV appearances, books and speeches.

"I can't imagine Sarah Palin is going to get into the race and give up all that," Mr Galen said.