Race for 2012 US election begins

Published on Saturday 13 August 2011 14:40

AND they're off. The starting pistol was officially fired on the 2012 US presidential election yesterday as six Republican presidential hopefuls competed in a highly scrutinised straw poll while Texas governor Rick Perry announced his intention to run for the White House.

The two events promise to reshape the Republican race for the nomination to challenge President Barack Obama in 2012.

Perry announced his presidential bid in South Carolina yesterday, while in Iowa, the famous Iowa straw poll - a non-binding mock election traditionally viewed as a way of winnowing poor performers from the race - took place in a blaze of publicity in the town of Ames.

Late last night Tea Party favourite Michele Bachmann scored a victory in that poll, a win likely to give her considerable momentum as the race ramps up.

Texas Republican Ron Paul came a very close second while former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty finished third.

Current front-runner Mitt Romney will be on the ballot but chose not to participate after winning the straw poll in 2007. He later lost the Iowa caucuses to Mike Huckabee, who rode the momentum he generated with a surprise second-place straw poll finish.

Meanwhile, Sarah Palin rolled into the Iowa state fair on Friday, stealing the spotlight from the party's presidential contenders and sparking a new round of speculation about her plans for 2012.

She has yet to announce her intention on whether or not to run for the presidential nomination - meaning her name did not appear on the straw poll. Palin's visit to the cattle barn at the fair attracted a crush of photographers, reporters, fans and onlookers around the former Alaska governor, alarming the cows and bringing activity in the barn to a temporary halt.

Perry, who succeeded George W Bush as Texas governor and is a highly regarded name in Republican politics. Earlier, he announced his candidacy for the presidential nomination at the RedState Gathering in Charleston, South Carolina.

Perry is expected to be a strong challenger to Romney and his announcement will catapult him to the top of the pile of contenders.

The conservative Perry said: "I am a pro-business governor. I will be a pro-business president." After his announcement he was expected to travel to New Hampshire before arriving in Iowa today.

The straw poll, where candidates entice supporters with entertainment, free food and speeches, has long been pointed to as an important early indicator in the Republican nomination.

"It's an event that in-and-of-itself is meaningless, but can have a tremendous political impact," said Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Iowa's Drake University. "It has always had the role of eliminating the weak and thinning out the field."

The poll is essentially a fund-raiser for the state Republican party and creates a carnival atmosphere around Iowa State University's basketball arena. Any Iowa resident over 18 can participate, with many allowing a candidate to buy their $30 (18) ticket. Candidates organise buses to haul in supporters from around the state in a warm-up for the organisational effort needed in the caucuses.

Not all of the candidates are fans of the event. Palin, during her visit to the Iowa state fair on Friday, questioned its validity.

"It's not always the tell-tale sign of what the electorate is feeling," Palin said of the poll. "It's who happens to show up and has the time and energy to spend that day for their particular candidate."

Of all the candidates on the list, Pawlenty and Bachmann have the most at risk. They are both vying for the support of the social conservatives who dominate Iowa's kick-off contest, and both need a win in Iowa's caucuses in 2012 to have a viable path to the nomination.

Bachmann's appeal to both Tea Party fiscal conservatives and social conservatives has shot her to the top of opinion polls in Iowa, but a flat performance by the Minnesota congresswoman could puncture her early momentum.

Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor, is mired in single digits in state and national polls and needs a strong showing to keep his campaign alive. He ripped Bachmann's record in Congress during a debate on Thursday at the straw poll site.

Pawlenty has repeatedly criticised Bachmann's lack of substantive success in enacting a legislative agenda, and accused her of "making false statements".

Bachmann hit back, accusing Pawlenty of pursuing policies that sound "a lot more like Barack Obama".

"He's been trying to say Bachmann is all flash and he can go the distance, but he has had trouble convincing Republicans here of that," Goldford said.

Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant refused to discuss how strong a showing was needed to keep Pawlenty viable, but he said he was confident it would show him on the rise.

"We acknowledge that we have to show some movement from the back of the pack to the front," Conant said.

Four other Republicans - US Representatives Ron Paul and Thaddeus McCotter, businessman Herman Cain and former Senator Rick Santorum - also paid the fees and bought tents and speaking time at the event. Romney, along with former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, did not pay to participate in the straw poll but will be listed on the ballot. The straw poll often sifts out failing candidates but is no guarantee of success. Romney won in 2007 but Mike Huckabee came second and later won the Iowa caucus. John McCain did not take part and won the nomination.