Q and A: Everything depends on 2011 vote

Published on Monday 30 November 2009 21:55

WHAT happens now? The Scottish Government will publish a referendum bill early next year setting out the question it wants to put to the public. It would like the referendum to take place on St Andrew's Day next year.

The SNP says it wants there to be one question, but it confirmed yesterday that it would be open to having the option of "more powers" in a referendum question.

So there is going to be a referendum?

No. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives have all said that they are going to vote against the bill when it comes before parliament. The SNP's 47 MSPs and the two Greens – who back a referendum – won't be able to claim a majority in the 129-seat parliament, so the bill will fail.

So what was the point of yesterday then?

Cynics would say that Alex Salmond has to go through the motions to show the party faithful that he did everything he could do deliver independence. The First Minister is also keen to use the failure of the bill as a stick with which to beat his opponents at the next Holyrood election. But yesterday's exchanges were just the first. After that election, it might all start again.

You mean …

Yes. If the SNP wins the next election, the whole issue will be brought back up again.

But won't it just get voted down again?

Probably not. The SNP is still unlikely to have a majority, but it may be able to persuade one of the unionist parties to join it. The Lib Dems ruled out backing this referendum bill last month, but there is a growing confidence in the SNP ranks that they will be able to persuade the Lib Dems to change their minds after the election in return for a coalition deal, if the numbers stack up.

And even if the Lib Dems don't do a U-turn, Labour may well decide to back a referendum if it loses in 2011 – Labour's current position is that there "may come a time" when a referendum should take place.

But why would the Liberal Democrats or Labour back a referendum when they are opposed to independence?

First, all the opinion polls currently show that the SNP would lose. A referendum might therefore give the opposition parties the chance to "shoot the nationalist fox", while also giving them an excuse to boot the SNP out of power as a result, sometime in late 2012. Second, they are conscious that the idea of a referendum is a popular one. They don't want to be seen to be denying the people a choice.

So is a referendum in 2012 likely?

It's a good punt, although it probably relies on the SNP winning the next Holyrood election. In other words, that election is beginning to shape up as a referendum about a referendum.