Pressure grows on SNP to shelve plans for referendum

Published on Wednesday 26 November 2008 20:41

A PROMINENT Nationalist has called on Alex Salmond to abandon plans for a referendum in 2010 because of the economic crisis.

In the New Statesman, the media commentator and academic Rob Brown, a former media editor at Scotland on Sunday and a member of the SNP, argues that the financial meltdown has exposed weaknesses in the Scottish economy and prevailing attitudes among the Scottish population.

But yesterday the Scottish Government confirmed it still wanted to push ahead with the referendum planned for St Andrew's Day 2010, despite a BBC poll showing a drop in support for independence by 3 per cent. The referendum is subject to MSPs voting for it in early 2010.

The projected drop by one-third in oil revenues from 2010, the problems suffered by Scottish banks, the collapse of the banking system in Iceland, which the SNP once held up as a model for Scotland, and the fear that unemployment is set to rise by 2 per cent have all contributed to question marks over the independence project.

Mr Brown wrote: "Salmond is in a hurry to make history. But party members should be wary of his impatience because this inveterate gambler wouldn't just be risking further economic instability and his own political legacy with an ill-timed referendum; he would be risking the very future of the self-government cause."

But the SNP argues that the crisis has only served to strengthen the case for independence.

A source close to the First Minister said: "What we are seeing is the cack-handed way the UK government has treated the whisky industry. North Sea oil money is bankrolling the UK budget at a time when Alistair Darling wants to take away up to 1 billion from the Scottish budget.

"We are confident in our arguments and it will be interesting to see if the Unionist parties are as confident in theirs when they come to vote on whether to give the Scottish people a chance to decide on their own future."

Professor John Curtice, a political analyst at Strathclyde University, said that it was not clear which side of the argument would be strengthened by the crisis.

"Certainly there has been a drop of 3 to 4 per cent since it started in support for independence, but you have to remember that it was only ever running at one-third in favour," he said.

"It could depend on whether there is a run on the pound, and the UK government is forced to go to the IMF, over who will win the argument in terms of whether Scotland would have been better off as independent in the eurozone or in the UK.

"Of course, the other question is whether there will even be a referendum. It will need support from a Unionist party and I don't see Labour supporting it under its current leadership."