Population will race to record high in three years

Published on Wednesday 21 October 2009 21:56

SCOTLAND'S population will hit a record high within three years, according to the latest predictions. By 2012, the population will exceed the current record of 5.25 million in 1974.

Within 25 years, the number of people living in Scotland will have grown from 5.17m today to 5.54m – an increase of 7 per cent, according to a report by the Registrar General for Scotland.

The latest predictions, unveiled yesterday, suggest the population will rise faster than previously thought.

In 2004, it was being predicted that Scotland's population would peak in 2019 at 5.1m and then start to decline.

Predictions two years ago suggested the population would grow to just 5.37m by 2033, compared with 5.54m under the new figures.

Registrar general Duncan Macniven said migration had remained at a higher level than previously predicted, and the rise in the birth rate had continued beyond expectations.

He said: "These latest projections suggest a bigger rise in Scotland's population than we expected when we published our last projections."

From 2015, migration is expected to bring 12,000 people to Scotland every year – with more than half coming from elsewhere in the UK.

Up until the end of the 20th century, Scotland was a country with more migration than immigration. In the past decade, this situation has reversed.

However, record inflows of 26,000 in the past year will start to decline, according to yesterday's report, with fewer people arriving from countries such as Poland.

The number of pensioners in Scotland is due to rise by 31 per cent by 2008 and the number of people aged 75 and over will go up by 84 per cent – from 0.39m in 2008 to 0.72m in 2033.

The number of children aged under 16 in Scotland is expected to decrease by 1.5 per cent by 2033, whereas the number of people of working age will rise by 2 per cent.

Mr Macniven suggested that the relative stability of working-age people in Scotland was due to the later retirement age brought in by the government.

He said the predictions that it would remain fairly constant negated suggestions from some groups that a further increase in the retirement age – of up to 70 – could be necessary.

"The presently planned increase in pension age is enough to keep the working age constant," Mr Macniven said.

The ratio of dependent people – either those aged under 16 or those over the pensionable age – to working-age people is expected to rise from 60 per 100 to 68 per 100 in 2033.

Mr Macniven said: "People should not be alarmed about the dependency ratio, because it's a ratio that we have seen before in the very recent past, and we coped with it fine. What we have at the moment is a historically low dependency ratio."

The populations of other UK countries are expected to rise at a faster rate than in Scotland.

The UK as a whole will rise by 17 per cent in the next 25 years, to more than 71.6m. Migration levels are also expected to be higher for the rest of the UK – particularly England and Wales.

However, Scotland's population is still growing by more than the European average.