Poll shock for Chavez as opposition claims one third of Venezuela vote

Published on Monday 27 September 2010 16:14

An EMPTY balcony at the Miraflores presidential palace told Venezuela's latest election story.

When polls shut after a parliament vote that President Hugo Chavez's party was confident of winning handsomely, officials ushered supporters and media towards the palace to await their man's traditional triumphant appearance.

But as the hours ticked by, Socialist Party officials' smiles evaporated while opposition euphoria rose at the realisation they had won a crucial one-third of National Assembly seats and probably the overall popular vote.

The balcony - which Mr Chavez has made famous from past election celebrations - remained empty through the night and the crowd outside finally trickled home.

Though the government kept a majority, officials had repeatedly said their goal was two-thirds of the Assembly, so the results felt more like defeat and the mood was similar to Mr Chavez's only actual vote loss in a 2007 referendum.

"This chips away at the aura of invincibility Chavez has had," one Western diplomat in Caracas said.

With the vast majority of votes from Sunday's election counted, Mr Chavez's socialist party won at least 96 of the 165 seats in the National Assembly, while the opposition coalition won at least 61 seats, National Electoral Council president Tibisay Lucena said.

The result will rejuvenate an opposition movement used to being repeatedly defeated by Mr Chavez. Opposition leaders have proved that unity pays and have reason to believe they now have a decent chance of winning the 2012 presidential election if they can unite behind a single candidate and produce a policy platform that goes beyond simply being anti-Chavez.

"There are two clear messages: one that most of the country is not with President Chavez, and two, that it is clear the government used a perverse electoral system to have fewer votes but more legislators," opposition leader Stalin Gonzalez said.

Analysts agree that changes in electoral districts skewed the parliamentary poll in the government's favour.

Only a fool, however, would write Mr Chavez off. The resilient and charismatic 56-year-old former soldier has bounced back from far darker days than Sunday's election - including a brief coup against him in 2002, an oil industry strike in 2003 and the referendum defeat three years ago.

Amid the opposition's jubilation, it is worth remembering Mr Chavez still has a majority in parliament. He knows, however, that Sunday's election, where the opposition claim they won 52 per cent of the votes cast, has laid bare the discontent of many with the direction of Venezuela.His frequently invoked inspiration from former Cuban President Fidel Castro goes down badly among many Venezuelans, while shocking violent crime levels - outstripping those of Iraq - a second year of recession and untamed inflation weigh heavily. Mr Chavez's first reaction came on his Twitter account. "We must continue strengthening the Revolution. A new victory for the people," he wrote.

All eyes will be on his further statements, with some speculating he could radicalise further in response to advances by an opposition he despises and regularly calls a corrupt bourgeois elite acting as puppets for Washington.

"It's now Chavez is dangerous," said analyst Luis Vicente Leon.