Poll points to Labour by-election victory

Published on Sunday 13 July 2008 00:16

LABOUR is heading for victory in the crucial Glasgow East by-election, but the SNP has slashed the party's lead from the last time voters went to the polls.

An ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph of 500 voters in the constituency put Labour on 47% of the vote and the SNP on 33%.

In 2005, the then Labour MP David Marshall won with 60% of the vote, compared with the SNP's mere 17%.

Labour Party chiefs last night said the poll finding actually over-inflated their own estimation of support on the ground.

The SNP leader Alex Salmond immediately described the result as "fantastic" for the Nationalists, claiming the party could easily make up the 14% gap between now and next Thursday. The SNP was quick to point to a poll from 1988 published three days before the Govan by-election that year which put Labour 20% ahead of the SNP. The party went on to win a few days later by 12%.

Nevertheless, the findings will be met with relief by Labour party chiefs who believe that the catastrophic flight of Labour voters as seen in the recent Crewe and Nantwich by-election is not being replicated in Glasgow.

The party's own canvassers on the ground believe their vote is holding steady, with the main problem continuing to be how to persuade Labour voters to come out and vote.

Behind the SNP, the Liberal Democrats are on 9% and the Conservatives on 7%.

Some Labour MPs have suggested that if the party loses Glasgow East, Brown could be forced out of Number 10 ahead of Labour's annual conference, which takes place in Manchester in September.

ICM conducted the poll after Labour selected its candidate, Margaret Curran, following the fiasco last weekend when the original favourite pulled out at the last minute. The SNP challenger is John Mason.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 516 adults aged 18+ by telephone on July 10-11. Interviews were conducted across the political constituency of Glasgow East and the results have been weighted to the profile of adults who live there.

Yesterday, the SNP's standard bearer Winnie Ewing said a victory for the Nats in the by-election will "make London sit up and listen to Scotland". She said victory would provide the same kind of boost for the SNP as it did 40 years ago after her own seminal success.

"Winning the Hamilton by-election in 1967 made the London Government sit up and take notice of Scotland," said Ewing.