Tory gains in the south are not mirrored in Scotland

Published on Friday 23 May 2008 22:25

SCOTTISH Tories could hardly have hoped for better news from Crewe as they gathered for their annual conference in Ayr. The party did not simply secure its first by-election gain from Labour in 30 years. It left Labour trailing badly in its wake.

The best the Conservatives have managed to do in any by-election since 1997 is to increase their share of the vote by three percentage points. In Crewe their vote advanced by 18 points. With Labour's vote also down by 17 points that meant the swing from Labour to the Conservatives was as much as 17.6 per cent.

Crewe reinforces the message of the polls and the local elections that the Conservatives appear to have a serious chance of winning the next general election. Certainly the last time there was a by-election swing to the Conservatives of as much as 17.6 per cent was in 1977, when Jim Callaghan was Labour prime minister. He went on to suffer defeat in the 1979 general election.

Yet after celebrating their party's success, Scottish Tories might ask themselves an awkward question: why are they apparently not part of their party's revival? In Scotland the polls show little sign of Conservative progress.

This apparent failure in Scotland does not pose a serious threat to David Cameron's chances of becoming prime minister. In contrast to the north of England, for example, there are too few top Tory targets to make much difference to the outcome of the next election. But it could undermine Cameron's hopes of being a successful prime minister.

The opposition leader after all argues he is the true defender of the Union. Yet any future Conservative government will find it difficult to claim to be representative of the Union if it has few, if any, MPs in Scotland. The more the Tories seem to be successful in England, the more they need to strengthen their position north of the Border too.

&#149 John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University