Tories seem to give up without a fight in Mandelson by-election

Published on Wednesday 18 August 2004 03:10

CONSERVATIVES are already bracing for defeat in the Hartlepool by-election, with some demoralised activists predicting the poll will torpedo the party’s autumn conference.

The north-eastern seat became vacant when Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, appointed its MP, Peter Mandelson, to the European Commission.

Although no official date has yet been set for the election, Labour strategists seem certain to hold the poll on 7 October, the last day of the Conservatives’ annual conference in Bournemouth.

It will be the third by-election in a Labour-held seat this year. Seizing the seat, or even significantly cutting Labour’s 15,000-vote majority, would be a major boost to the Conservatives and their leader, Michael Howard.

But the Tories show little sign of gearing up for a major push in Hartlepool. Unlike Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives have yet to select a candidate, and have little in the way of a campaigning machine set up in the area.

Yesterday, Conservative Central Office was unable to say if there is even a shortlist for candidates or which senior MPs will oversee the party’s campaign.

And other parties have been quick to point out that despite the Tories’ much-vaunted summer media offensive, Mr Howard has not been to visit Hartlepool, even though he was a few miles away in Middlesbrough to deliver a high-profile speech.

Labour sent London-based staff to Hartlepool the day Mr Mandelson accepted the European post, and has rented flats in the town for them.

The party’s campaign is being run by Fraser Kemp, a local MP well-trusted by Labour leaders, and Tom Watson, a Birmingham MP credited with saving Hodge Hill for Labour last month and tipped for promotion to government soon.

The Liberal Democrats, who specialise in by-elections, have also set up a local operation, with a permanent press officer already stationed in Hartlepool.

The contrast with the Tories’ earlier by-election efforts this year could not be more stark.

Almost as soon as Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill became vacant, Conservative Central Office scrambled an all-out effort to try to gain ground on Labour.

The party’s chief whip, David Maclean, practically moved to Leicester for several weeks, and all Conservative MPs were ordered to report for campaigning duties in the seat.

Senior Conservatives including Liam Fox, the co-chairman, confidently predicted Tory advances in both constituencies, forecasts that were proved badly wrong when the Conservatives finished third in both seats.

So the Hartlepool poll presents a dilemma for the Tories.

On one hand, the Conservatives are desperate to avoid what one Tory called the "utter bloody humiliation" of Leicester and Birmingham. On the other, Michael Howard is loath to accept that any seat is unwinnable.

Yet the first step to any Conservative campaign will be to find a candidate, and that appears to be proving tricky.

Gus Robinson, the Conservative candidate at the last election, yesterday confirmed that he is considering standing as independent candidate, and chastised Mr Howard’s party for not showing more commitment to the town.

"The Tories should be serious about Hartlepool. It is not an easy seat, but it is winnable," Mr Robinson, a prominent local businessman, told The Scotsman.

"After an election defeat, both locally and nationally, there should be a serious appraisal of what that means for local areas and for the party, but that hasn’t really happened for the Conservatives."

Stephen Allison, Mr Robinson’s election agent in 2001, has also deserted the Tories and accepted the nomination of the UK Independence Party.

"The usual candidate selection process is under way," said a Conservative campaign spokesman yesterday. "These things take time."