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Scottish Independence: ‘Yes’ vote odds at longest

The odds of a Yes win are at their longest ever. Picture: Phil Wilkinson

The odds of a Yes win are at their longest ever. Picture: Phil Wilkinson

A MYSTERY punter’s £50,000 bet on Scotland voting “no” to independence has pushed the odds of a ‘Yes’ victory to their longest ever.

An unnamed Edinburgh man made the bet by phone this week resulting in Ladbrokes immediately shortening their odds on a no vote from 1/7 to 1/8.

The firm also revealed that a Glasgow punter placed a £200,000 bet against independence in July this year, followed by a £50,0000 bet from Edinburgh in September.

Together with a £200,000 bet known to have been placed in Glasgow in January with a branch of William Hill, that takes the total to at least £500,000.

The most recent flutter on Scotland not getting its freedom was made by an unnamed 40-year-old from the capital who can expect a profit of just £7,124.86 if he wins.

That is because the 1/7 odds mean he only gets back £1 for every £7 he bet. Now these have lengthened to ⅛ that means only £1 for every £8 bet.

Ladbrokes say the huge bets demonstrate increasing confidence among Scots that the referendum will fail to deliver a “yes” vote.

The firm has also changed its odds for bets on an SNP victory from 5/2 to 5/1, the longest ever on the issue. Punters would win £5 for every £1 they spend.

Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: “We’ve never known ‘yes’ odds as big as this in history.

“We’ve taken some serious cash on a ‘no’ outcome again suggesting confidence in the referendum failing is an all time high.”

A spokesman for Better Together, the organisation leading the campaign for a “no” vote, said: “More and more people don’t want Alex Salmond to gamble with Scotland’s future.

“Placing bets is interesting, but we need everybody who believes Scotland is better off part of the UK to do their bit to make sure we win this referendum.”

Yes Scotland insisted the punters had thrown away their cash.

“Unfortunately these individuals have just wasted their money because we are very confident that Scotland will vote Yes in 2014. Hopefully it’s small change for them.’

“We hope, for this person’s sake, they have plenty money to waste on losing bets because the indications we are getting – on the streets, in public meetings and on the doorsteps – are making us increasingly confident the people of Scotland are going to vote Yes

“A recent poll showed that a swing of only just over 4 per cent is needed for Yes to move ahead.”

The referendum has now become the biggest betting event in Scottish political history with bookmakers estimating punters in Scotland will bet over £2m by September next year.

Last month a TNS-BMRB poll revealed that the support for independence was “flatlining” at just 25 percent. According to the survey of 1,004 adults in Scotland, only a quarter said they would vote yes, while 43 percent said they would vote no.

 

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