Greens and LibDems boosted as fifth of voters switch parties - survey

Published on 30/04/2003 01:00

One in five voters have changed their voting intentions since the start of the election campaign, according to a survey of 1,500 scotsman.com readers across Scotland, with the Greens and LibDems being the major winners.

Some 20 per cent of respondents in the scotsman.com 2003 online focus group said that their voting intentions had changed in the past three weeks.

The findings help explain why the SNP is not doing better in opinion polls. While there are a large number of disaffected former Labour voters, only around 10 per cent of those who have turned away from the party will back the SNP on the first vote.

As shown by previous findings of the scotsman.com 2003 online focus group, the Liberal Democrats are picking up more ex-Labour voters than the Nationalists, with a fifth of those who changed their vote from Labour opting for Jim Wallace's party.

However, in the first past the post elections this is unlikely to make much of a difference as the Lib Dems need a swing to it of more than 6 per cent to pick up any seats.

Furthermore, even among those who have said their vote has changed, there is a high degree of "brand loyalty" when it comes to the first vote.

It is the second vote that has thrown up the most interesting findings.

More than a quarter of people who had changed their vote from LibDem or Labour will be voting Green this time round. The figure for SNP voters in 1999 was 23 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats are also doing well on the second vote among this group. Once again they are picking up a large proportion of Labour exiles, with nearly 40 per cent turning to the LibDems.

The scotsman.com panel has been created in association with progressive partnership. It consists of a representative sample of scotsman.com registered users throughout Scotland, and members of the progressive partnership internet panel. A total of 1,504 respondents took part in the survey, which was e-mailed to them on Monday 28th April 2003. All results used in the survey were submitted between 9.30 a.m on Monday 28th April 2003 and lunchtime on Tuesday 29th April 2003.