Tom Brown - Double blow to Brown's hopes

Published on Saturday 28 June 2008 19:52

JUST when Gordon Brown thought things could not get any worse, they have – at the double. The embarrassing downfall of his protégé Wendy Alexander will be seen as another personal blow for the Prime Minister.

Wendy had tried his patience by unilaterally declaring her independence from him on the Scottish referendum, but she had his enthusiastic endorsement as Scottish Labour leader.

Alexander's obvious bitterness at the Holyrood process and the SNP stitch-up is understandable. It is shared by Downing Street, where one Brownite said: "There is cold fury at this style of politics."

The SNP's involvement smacks of vendetta, Holyrood's handling of the affair has left a bad taste and the political impartiality of the Standards Committee is now in question.

For MSPs to rush away on holiday while a major committee was deliberating on an important question requiring the full Parliament's approval, hamstringing Labour through-out the recess, smacked of cynicism.

Had Alexander been strong politically, she could have ridden out the fiasco, but it was already being whispered that she would have to go sooner rather than later. Apart from the financial mess, her poor performances at First Minister's Questions and the referendum debacle added to the sense of letdown.

Labour will now look for someone with less brain and more brawn, who can match Alex Salmond and be more brutal about SNP policy failures. Downing Street will not have a preferred candidate this time, so the next Scottish leader is likely to demand more slack from London – and should get it.

The Glasgow East by-election, caused by the ill-health of MP David Marshall, is the last thing Brown needs, coming so soon after the mauling at Crewe and Nantwich and the absolute humiliation at Henley.

A 13,507 Labour majority in a West of Scotland seat, needing a 22% swing to the Nats, would normally be taken for granted, but these are not normal times. Labour will be glad to get away with a halved majority or any majority at all. Anything worse would have dire consequences for Brown.

If Labour cannot make some sort of recovery, given voters' realisation they can use the Nats to send a message to Westminster, the SNP could be in power until 2015 – and how much closer will it have brought us to independence by then?

Just when things are getting worse and worse for Brown, it seems things can only get better for Salmond.