THE SNP is poised to win the constituency represented by Gordon Brown since the early 1980s, with a major swing to the nationalists in May’s election, a new poll published last night showed.
Former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy also faces losing his Ross, Skye and Lochaber seat in another major scalp for the SNP, according to polling from former Tory donor Lord Ashcroft.
Scotland’s only Conservative MP David Mundell would also be at risk of losing in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, with a 13.5 per cent swing to the SNP - a result Lord Ashcroft said could “mean a recount or even a toss of the coin were this snapshot to be repeated” on 7 May.
However, the SNP overturning Labour’s 23009 majority in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where Mr Brown is retiring after 32 years as the local MP, would represent a political earthquake in Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon’s party would also take Edinburgh South West - a seat held by No campaign leader and former Chancellor Alistair Darling, who is also standing down in May’s election.
Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy would narrowly cling onto his East Renfrewshire seat, although a 22 per cent swing to the SNP would mean a loss of seats for Ed Miliband and a potential dead heat between the two major UK parties at Westminster.
Lord Ashcroft, setting out the polling last night, said: “Labour losses in Scotland could offset their gains from the Tories, leading to something close to a dead heat.”
Mr Murphy’s latest blow came after a previous Lord Ashcroft poll suggested the SNP would defeat Labour’s UK election campaign chief and shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander in Paisley and Renfrewshire South, as well as Lib Dem Chief Treasury Secretary Danny Alexander in Inverness.
However, the latest round of polling suggested the swing to the SNP of 22 per cent would see the nationalists gaining 36 seats from Labour, which would be left with just four Scottish MPs.
The poll saw more than 1,000 adults interviewed in eight separate Scottish constituencies, which included the seats represented by Mr Brown, Mr Darling, Mr Murphy and Mr Kennedy.