Slugger Alex on ropes but no fear of a fight

Published on Friday 4 December 2009 09:47

ALEX Salmond's decision to sack Fiona Hyslop as education secretary has left the SNP Government looking weaker than at any point since it came to power.

The First Minister tried to face down opposition threats of a vote of no confidence in Ms Hyslop by warning that such a move would mean the whole Government resigning and forcing an election. He had used the same tactic to kill off previous talk of no-confidence motions, but this time it did not work.

Now the opposition parties think they have Mr Salmond on the ropes. The forced reshuffle – which saw Ms Hyslop demoted to be minister for culture and external affairs – came after new figures showed the SNP's pledge to maintain teacher numbers was not being kept.

It also followed a poll showing a drop in support for independence just as the Scottish Government unveiled its referendum white paper.

Cross-party opposition has effectively guaranteed the SNP's plans for minimum pricing of alcohol will be defeated. The Government has come under sustained criticism from business leaders.

Although the SNP has been taking some hits, no-one should doubt Mr Salmond's ability or determination to come out fighting. The difficulties his administration are now facing are the kind of problems most governments would have faced much earlier in their term. And the polls still show the Nationalists ahead both for Holyrood and Westminster.

Education had long been seen as the area where the SNP's record was weakest. The party was elected on a manifesto promising to cut class sizes to 18 in the first three years of primary school, maintain teacher numbers, dump student debt and match Labour's school building programme "brick for brick".

The debt pledge was dropped as soon as the SNP took control, though it did abolish graduate endowment charges. Edinburgh has first hand experience of delays over school building.

But the concordat which the Government signed with local authorities left it to councils to deliver on the pledges over class sizes and teacher numbers – and they have been doing so only patchily.

Mr Salmond points out class sizes are now at a record low of 23.1 – though Edinburgh Pentlands Tory MSP David McLetchie has calculated that at the current rate of progress, the target size of 18 will only be reached in 2094.

But it was the figures on teacher numbers – down by 2,000 since 2007 – and Ms Hyslop's threat to take the running of schools away from local authorities which brought the education issue to a head.

Liberal Democrat chief whip Mike Rumbles phoned the SNP's business manager Bruce Crawford on Saturday to inform him they would be tabling a motion of no confidence in Ms Hyslop.

Mr Crawford told him that meant the Government would resign en bloc and there would be an election. Mr Rumbles said he did not believe him. There were further conversations on Sunday and Monday, but neither side would change its stance.

In the meantime, the Lib Dems had approached the other two main opposition parties. Labour immediately said they would support a motion of no confidence. But the Tories would not commit themselves.

The Lib Dems were confident their motion would succeed, however, reasoning that since the Tories had previously called for Ms Hyslop to go, they could only support the motion of no confidence or abstain.

The SNP tried to offer the Tories a deal to help save Ms Hyslop, but that was swiftly rejected. Then on Tuesday, just a couple of hours before the motion was due to be lodged, Mr Salmond announced his reshuffle. When MSPs debated education in the Scottish Parliament yesterday – after approving Michael Russell's appointment as new education secretary – all sides went out of their way to say the Government's education failings were not down to Ms Hyslop.

Mr Salmond has spoken about the new education secretary bringing "fresh thinking" to the portfolio. And Mr Russell does have the experience of being the SNP's education spokesman in the first parliament.

But he will have his work cut out trying to square the party's pledges with the circle of available funding.

And soon after MSPs return in the new year, the SNP will face its next big test – presenting its budget for next year. Finance secretary John Swinney has the tricky task of trying to win support from opposition parties without being able to throw money around. And cuts, which are almost inevitable, could see the Government's popularity damaged.