Scottish independence: support falls 8% with different question
Breaking up might not be so simple. Picture: Neil Hanna
SUPPORT for independence drops by as much as 8 per cent if the SNP’s preferred question is dumped in favour of one backed by pro-Union campaigners, a major new poll has revealed.
The survey, conducted by YouGov, and published yesterday by Conservative donor Lord Ashcroft, showed that 41 per cent of people currently back independence if asked using Alex Salmond’s preferred question.
The First Minister has suggested asking people simply: “Do you agree Scotland should be an independent country?”
But when pollsters asked another group of Scottish residents a different question – “Should Scotland become an independent country or should it remain part of the United Kingdom?” –the numbers backing independence fell to just 33 per cent.
Support for the status quo, meanwhile, rose from 59 per cent under Mr Salmond’s preferred question to 67 per cent under the second option.
The poll also tested a third question with people asked: “Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country.” The simple inclusion of the word “disagree” saw support for independence drop by two points to 39 per cent and support for the Union rise by two to 61 per cent, compared to the SNP’s preference.
SNP figures last night insisted their own wording was “fair and decisive”, pointing to backing last week from Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson who said she supported the SNP’s wording.
Meanwhile, leading referendum expert Dr Matt Qvortrup, writing in The Scotsman today, argues that it is not the question which will decide the outcome of the vote, but the way in which the campaign is fought ahead of the vote.
But the new poll will put a further question mark over their formulation preferred by the SNP. It comes after a former staff member at the Electoral Commission warned yesterday that the SNP’s option could “be seen as leading”, as it asks people to “agree” on the proposition.
Publishing his poll yesterday, Lord Ashcroft said: “Mr Salmond is not a pollster, he is a politician. Though he is committed to asking the Scottish people whether they want independence, he is equally determined to get the answer he wants. The question is too important to be asked in such a partisan way.”
On the substance of the referendum, the poll – which does not include the views of people who said “don’t know” – reflects previous surveys in recent weeks, indicating that, whichever question is asked, the SNP still has a mountain to climb to convince more than 50 per cent of people to back independence. The challenge for the SNP applies particularly to women, the poll shows. Using the SNP’s preferred wording, while 46 per cent of men back secession, that falls to just 35 per cent for women.
Support is also lower for independence among ABC1 voters, at 37 per cent, compared with people in the C2DE bracket, where backing runs at 44 per cent.
Significantly, however, other polls have suggested that more people are moving into the “undecided” category. SNP strategists believe that if they can convince such people of the economic case for independence, they could see a marked swing of support for independence.
Mr Salmond’s preferred question is now the subject of a three-month consultation exercise, before he presents a Referendum Bill to the parliament next year.
The Electoral Commission insisted last night it did not have a view on the fairness of the question. It will only make up its mind after a ten-week consultation, if given the authority to do so by the Scottish Government.
Andy O’Neill, head of the Electoral Commission in Scotland, said last night: “The reported opinion of a former staff member does not reflect our position. We have not offered a view on the proposed referendum question.” He added: “We do not currently have a formal role to assess the question. If, in due course, we are given such a role, we will offer our view based on firm evidence.”
On the YouGov poll published yesterday, Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: “This poll shows that no politician, including Alex Salmond, should be allowed to fix the question. The independent Electoral Commission must oversee the setting of an impartial ballot to deliver a result that we all have confidence in.”
Deputy leader of the Scottish Labour Party, Anas Sarwar, said: “The Electoral Commission must have a statutory role to rule on the wording of the question.”
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Comments
There are 349 comments to this article
Page 1 of 24
ali2011
Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 10:37 PMAgent pee what a gush of pish yoy spout. through your little penis. Are you a man?
crecy1346
Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 07:22 PMTo 347:- Who says you get to cherry pick what you want.NO we English do not accept that you either stay or go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
rider000
Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 04:31 PM“Do you agree Scotland should be an independent country whilst remaining within the UK, to remove British armed forces bases and to form a Scottish defence force, to have full control over our own resources and taxes, to refute any liability to all Scottish banking losses and residual toxic debt, to retain English money and to retain the full financial backing of England, Wales and Northern Ireland to underwrite the Scottish economy through their central bank; the Bank of England?” More to be added over the next 2 years
Boggle fey the Bog
Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 01:21 PMPerhaps the question should be “Should Scotland become independent of England , or should it remain as part of a discredited United Kingdom?” or how about 'Do you agree or disagree that England should be Independent of Scotland' or even ' Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should govern itself?' Helical Belles they could argue for another 300 years just about the sodin question, They asked for a succinct question, they got one, now they are crying foul! Just get on with it Alex and let them squirm! PoliFcukinPlonkers!
BagshottStaines
Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 12:56 PMPersonally I have always thought Lord Ashcroft to be a jolly decent sort. His fine survey simply underlines the need for Cameron to stand firm and tell Johnny Scotland (a) when the referendum is going to be and (b) what the question shall be. Commonsense and fairness dictates that this is how things should proceed. Then perhaps we can get on with celebrating 70 Glorious Years of Her Sovereign Majesty's reign, even in Scotland.
mikem64
Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 03:17 AMshouldn't that headline be "support for independence rises by 8% if unionist backed question is dumped in favour of short clear question asked by scottish government" ?
rider000
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 11:40 PMHad to google it but here is a newspaper snippit "Tory buffoon Nicholas Soames" from 2008. I guess he must have changed his ways if the natz are now pinning him to their banner.
rider000
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 11:36 PM341 footdee....... Oh OK, the much quoted Nicholas Soames, so it has to be so. Who is he, other than the grandson of someone famous?
footdee
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 08:33 PMider000 Friday, February 3, 2012 at 05:20 PM "325 LondonReader Friday, February 3, 2012 at 04:41 PM Sterling will drop like a stone if Scotland quits the UK........... On what exactly do you base this statement? "--------ask Nicky-------------------------------- "A Tory MP has urged the UK Government not to forget the “enormous” economic importance of North Sea oil and gas. Nicholas Soames, a grandson of wartime prime minister Winston Churchill, will put the industry back on the political agenda today after securing a debate on offshore taxation at Westminster. He believes it is as crucial to the economy as the City of London – describing it as “a goose that lays a golden egg”."
footdee
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 08:29 PMAnti Scottish politicians want to attack Scottish education----------------Labour and tory Lords unite to attack Scotland------------------Members of the unelected House of Lords have launched an extraordinary attack on the Scottish Parliament by criticising the Scottish policy of free education for university students resident in Scotland. The peers accused the elected Scottish Parliament of "discriminating" against students from England, Wales and Northern Ireland over tuition fees, and are calling for the UK coalition to curtail Holyrood's powers in order to 'address' the situation. In yesterday's session, peers from all sides gave angry speeches at the "unfairness" of allowing Scottish students to study for free at universities north of the Border, while those from the rest of the UK had to pay up to £9,000 a year. No peers spoke in support of the Scottish Government's position. There are no SNP members of the House of Lords, in 2005 the party adopted a policy of refusing peerages as it believes the system to be undemocratic and unfair.
all politicians are the s*me
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 07:38 PM338 I do not insult people! I was making a bit of a joke ref, using BOE and staying in Uk but humour and satire is not a Nationalist trait, you only have to look at the posts on teh cartoon thread.
Anagach
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 07:30 PM337 all politicians are the s*me I have heard rumours that Salmond... ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Are rumours the substitute for debate. Well its a tep up from insults.
all politicians are the s*me
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 07:22 PM335 To simplify things I have heard rumours that Salmond proposes that we share embassies and in order to avoid border problems we should just have on passport.
Danielrober2
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 07:17 PM# 266 Yosuf Bin Telt .......................... Why post such a disgusting thing about an old man and an elder politician? Is the aggression because he is an Old Socialist and member of the Labour Party, what is your justification for such language?
Tam O'Banter
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 06:43 PMPeople haven't been listening to our esteemed FM. a) When Scotland becomes independent, it will still be part of the United Kingdom. b) Queen Elizabeth 2 will still be Queen of Scotland. c) Scotland will allow the Bank of England to set it's interest rates and decide fiscal policy. And just wait until you hear the rest!
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