Scottish independence: Posing a simple question proves far from easy
Danny Alexander, with sports minister Shona Robison at Glasgows Commonwealth Arena
POLLSTERS, academics and politicians are divided over the fairness of the SNP’s preferred referendum question, raising the prospect of it being thrown out by electoral chiefs in charge of overseeing the historic vote.
First Minister Alex Salmond announced on Wednesday that, under his plans, people in Scotland would be asked, “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country: yes or no”.
The wording prompted widespread claims the question would act as a “prompt” to voters to accept the Nationalist case and was therefore “biased” in favour of independence.
But other figures, including Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, backed the phrasing of the question, saying voters would be entirely able to comprehend the choice in front of them.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander told The Scotsman yesterday it was for the Electoral Commission to decide whether the wording of the question was fair.
But SNP figures declined to specify exactly what would happen if the Electoral Commission demanded changes, and opposition parties said they were growing “suspicious” its role as referee was already being “watered down”.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said he backed the SNP’s intention to put a clear, straightforward question on independence.
He said: “It is an awful lot simpler than the previous question they suggested. The UK government asked for a straightforward question and this is a straightforward question.
“That said, I do think you can question the question.”
He added: “If you say ‘you agree with me, don’t you?’ then you are almost obliged to say ‘yes’ to that person. So it is questionable.”
Prof Curtice said the Scottish Government could change the question by simply asking people whether they “agree or disagree” with the plan for independence. The Scottish Government could also alter the question to ask people whether Scotland “should” become an independent country, he said. This format was used in the referendum for a North-East Regional Assembly in 1998.
But Chris Eynon, Scottish head of polling company TNS-BMRB, said: “As a professional market researcher, I regard the wording of ‘Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?’ as leading rather than neutral and would not use this form of question in any survey or poll which I was constructing on these grounds.
“I understand why this is used – through the desire for a Yes/No answer – but it does not give a balanced option, as would ‘Do you agree or not…’.”
American academic Professor Robert Cialdini, author of Influence: the Psychology of Persuasion, said the question as it stood was “loaded and biased”.
He went on: “It sends you down a particular cognitive chute designed to locate agreements rather than disagreements. It’s called the one-sided question or a loaded question, and poll-takers and researchers have warned us against those types of questions.”
Prof Cialdini quoted research suggesting such a question could alter the outcome of the vote by as much as 9 per cent. He said: “The research suggests a simple fix to de-biasing these questions. Instead of saying ‘how much do you agree with this policy’, the survey-takers have to say ‘do you agree or disagree’ or ‘do you approve or disapprove’, and that produces an even-handed, un-biased approach.”
However, referendum expert Dr Matt Qvortrup approved of the SNP’s wording, pointing out that a question asking people to “agree” had been posed in Northern Ireland in 1998, over the Good Friday agreement.
“We have a precedent from Northern Ireland,” he said. “I don’t think it will be biased as such. The use of the word ‘agree’ is fairly common. I think the question the SNP has set out is pretty straightforward.”
The question was also supported by the Tories’ Ms Davidson, who told MSPs: “What the First Minister posited … is a fair and decisive legal question, which I welcome, and we now need to ensure that it is asked in a legal referendum.”
Other opposition party figures, such as former Labour chancellor Alistair Darling, have claimed the question is “loaded”.
Meanwhile, in the House of Lords yesterday, former Scottish secretary Lord Forsyth accused Mr Salmond of putting forward a “rigged poll”. He said: “We have a rigged question, a rigged role for the regulator, a rigged expenses system and, on top of that, the question that there should be rigged franchise.”
In his interview with The Scotsman, Mr Alexander said it was not for politicians to decide on the nature of the question.
“It is for the Electoral Commission to give consideration, in due course, to the question put forward and to make recommendations as they would in any other referendum as to whether they think the wording is fair and appropriate,” he said.
“The fact that the Scottish Government has signalled they want a single ‘yes-no’ question on independence is real progress. The fact that they want the Electoral Commission involved is also real progress, because that ensures there is no jiggery-pokery behind the scenes. And I think the people of Scotland are well able to understand a clear, simple question on independence with a ‘yes-no’ answer.
“It is a matter for the Electoral Commission to decide on rather than for me to opine on.”
On Wednesday, Mr Salmond said the Electoral Commission would be given the authority to “assess” the proposed question. He also said he would be prepared to have further discussions with it on the way the vote was carried out.
However, confusion about the commission’s exact role has emerged, with its position over any possible vetoing of the question not being made clear in the SNP’s consultation paper.
A spokesman for the First Minister said last night: “We have established a question which could not be more simple, straightforward and fair. As we said, the Electoral Commission will obviously have a role in oversight of that and in analysis of all aspects of the question.
“As the First Minister said, it would be very difficult to argue that it is not simple and fair, but they [the commission] will have a role to play. I am not going to second guess that.”
That response drew an attack from Labour. Margaret Curran, the shadow Scottish secretary, said: “This is a serious point and shows why it is essential that the Electoral Commission has a formal role in setting the question. That is the current position, set out in statute, and any watering down of that function is highly suspicious. There must be complete confidence in the process and if people are raising issues about the wording of the question, it is a matter of principle that the Electoral Commission must be fully engaged.”
A spokesman for parliament minister Bruce Crawford said: “The Scottish Government’s referendum question couldn’t be more clear, straightforward and fair – the only other question needed is what are the anti-independence parties scared of? Having spent months demanding a simple question, as soon as they have one, they cry foul. They know they are losing the argument and they are now scared stiff of losing the referendum.”
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Comments
There are 944 comments to this article
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jaydee
Saturday, January 28, 2012 at 02:09 AM936.. Danielrober2.. I take it you are a Unionist Lib Dem.. They are heavy into look at the blue and beyond and wish to legalize waccy baccy and discuss serious things like that.. Dude..
well informed
Saturday, January 28, 2012 at 12:07 AM942 Arthur G Saturday, January 28, 2012 at 12:02 AM ----------------- Don't waste a lot of time on that thought.
Arthur G
Saturday, January 28, 2012 at 12:02 AMI wonder if historians will look back and consider what effect Hootsmoon cyberspace had on the outcome of the referendum that led to independence...
well informed
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:58 PM935 Shawfield Urchin Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:27 PM 932933 are fakirs --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'd send in the notorious UDI terrorist organisation to commit a vile Unilateral Declaration of Independence! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ It's the only language snake charmers understand!
Graham Day
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:56 PMhttp://tinyurl.com/dannyalexander , here's what danny really said at the above photo call
Graham Day
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:51 PMhttp://tinyurl.com/danielrober - Whos a pretty boy then Daniel , looks like you've been working out....lol Hows the other moniker sea hunter fairing? Drowned.......
Cynicus
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:38 PM935 Shawfield Urchin Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:27 PM 932933 are fakes ________________________________________________________ Fakes, eh? If they were stamps I'd consult a philatelist!
Danielrober2
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:34 PMYou are paid to work SNP, SO WORK. If your not up to the job resign on mass and lets have an election. .......................................... Constantly asking other people, even online, to do your work and fill in the blanks just convinces many of us of the shear laziness of SNP government circles. Oh I know lots of guys in the SNP who are talented and hard working, but why are you not letting them get to the task at hand. Scotland has already waited five years for a Devolved government to turn up to work, seeing projects such as Trams left to local councils to deal with. Work, Works, so give it a try SNP.
Danielrober2
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:29 PM# 931 jaydee ............................ How can you stop yourself digging, when you have yet to even start work. Looking at a hole will not see it dug, no matter how many times you represent the same situation and launch a new PR session. You want a hole, DIG. We want the Scots Devolved Government to work, so work. ................................ The SNP have a serious problem sourced at themselves. Its five years of government with nothing to show for it. That is not due to a lack of power, or a lack of capability, its because the party has allowed itself to become obsessed with one issue. Get to work SNP, or get used to the title of Seriously None Productive Government. Oh yes, and stop moaning, the SNP are a paid collection of elected government officials, so move your b=tts.
Shawfield Urchin
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:27 PMComment removed by moderator
Cynicus
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:25 PM"The proposed question is a fair one and I am sure that any qualified philatelist would agree so."-#932, Shawfield Urchin Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:11 PM _________________________________________________________ Philatelist, eh? That carries, right enough, an authoritative stamp. Collector's item!
CR7
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:14 PMComment removed by moderator
CR7
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:11 PMComment removed by moderator
jaydee
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 10:13 PM892,..Danielrober2 There is a old,military saying that has now been adopted by politicians... When in a hole stop digging.. So your source for tax on food was that you heard somebody on these posting say it it.. But you still have no idea how much it is going to cost.. Very technical... Now you still have not answered how the present cost of food is down to the SNP, and I do agree with you the price his high... But cannot figure out how that is the fault of the SNP.. I am sure you will tell me.. Then you keep banging on and and shouting at everybody for the cost of a SNP government. Well we have one. I have now asked you four times what is the Scottish share of the budget deficit it. It is out there in black and white for all to see.. Have you a problem finding it... Now you are accusing me I never give an answer.. It may have something to do with the fact you have not asked me a question or I have never made a statement that I picked up from someone posting here who heard it in the Dandy or Beano.. But let me give you a wee bit info.. Your continual rant about being taxed to death by the SNP.. At the moment the Scots pay 9.5% of UK tax with 8.4% of the population.. Is that your defence for the union... Bit ropy to me.. Or how is that the fault of the SNP.. But lets have the deficit figures.. That will give you a even bigger shock when you figure out what it means.. Dude
Lies and stats
Friday, January 27, 2012 at 10:10 PMDoh! I don't understand Yes or No , I must be a thick Scot who should not have the right to vote. What a load of unadulterated rubbish.
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