Scottish independence: Lower predictions on oil

Predictions have been reversed downwards

Predictions have been reversed downwards

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INCOME predictions for a Scottish share of oil and gas have been reversed downwards in new analysis set out by finance secretary John Swinney.

The Scottish Government’s figures put the likely total between £2.9 billion and £7.8bn in 2016-17, which would be the first full year of independence according to the SNP’s timetable following a Yes vote in September’s referendum.

The range compares with predictions made in 2013 that North Sea revenue would be between £4.2bn and £10.7bn for the same period.

Mr Swinney said the central prediction shows the country can benefit from £34.3bn over the next five years – equal to almost £7bn a year – as he unveiled the government’s “oil and gas analytical bulletin”.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, set up by the UK government, makes far lower predictions. The body expects just £15.8bn over the five years.

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