Poll: SNP set to lose pro-independence majority

Support for Nicola Sturgeons party has dropped by 4.5 per cent on the constituency vote Picture: Ian Rutherford
Support for Nicola Sturgeons party has dropped by 4.5 per cent on the constituency vote Picture: Ian Rutherford
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The SNP is set to lose their pro-independence majority at the Scottish Parliament at the next election as Labour make up ground, according to a new poll.

Support for Nicola Sturgeon’s party has dropped by 4.5 per cent on the constituency vote and 11 per cent on the regional list vote since last year, the Survation study for the Daily Mail found.

The figures suggest that the SNP is set to lose nine seats at the next election in 2021. With the Greens set to win eight, this means that the current pro-independence majority would be lost.

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The poll results may harden Ms Sturgeon’s resolve to push for another independence referendum after Brexit, despite her decision in June to move her focus away from securing another vote.

The survey also suggests that Labour has turned a corner and is fighting back in Scotland despite slipping into an embarrassing third place at last year’s Holyrood election.

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Support for the party, which is currently without a leader in Scotland following the resignation of Kezia Dugdale, has risen by 2 per cent in the constituency vote and 6 per cent in the regional vote.

Projections suggest that Labour is set to win 30 seats, overtaking the Scottish Conservatives on 24 to become Scotland’s second largest party again.

The SNP would remain the largest party with 54 seats, but even with the support of the Greens would lose its pro-independence majority at Holyrood, falling short by three seats.

The survey of 1,016 Scots was carried out after the First Minister published the Programme for Government last week.

The findings come as a veteran Labour MEP called for his party to form a coalition with the SNP at the next election, arguing that their constitutional differences could be put aside.

David Martin said that while a power-sharing deal between the two parties may currently appear “unthinkable”, it was time for the “ground work” to be laid, the Herald newspaper reported.

Scottish Labour’s business manager James Kelly hailed the “encouraging” poll figures, claiming they would be a “worry” for Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson.

However, a Scottish Tory spokesman said the survey showed “the shine has come off the SNP” and that Ms Sturgeon’s plans for independence were now “dead in the water”.

SNP business convener Derek Mackay claimed the “Tory bubble has burst”, highlighting the party’s handling of Brexit as being responsible for its fall back into third place.

He added: “Although we are a long way from another election, it’s hugely welcome that after ten years in government the SNP is recording double-digit poll leads.”