Labour prepares to lose out as Greens hope for Scots seat

Published on Tuesday 2 June 2009 22:01

TOMORROW'S elections to the European Parliament look like being the most unpredictable and volatile since Britain joined the EU 35 years ago.

A combination of disillusionment with the main parties and an improved turnout is expected to result in major changes to Britain's traditional voting patterns.

Throughout Britain this is likely to lead to the election of more Greens, a solid number of UKIP candidates as well as some from the British National Party.

In Scotland, the success of the smaller parties is expected to be less marked, with UKIP and the BNP not expected to do well enough to win any seats, but the Greens have a chance of disrupting the major parties by winning one seat from the six on offer.

The Labour Party is preparing to suffer the biggest loss in the elections, with some polls putting the party below even the Liberal Democrats in voting intentions.

Scottish Labour leaders hope they will retain the two seats they hold in Scotland but they could lose one and only return one MEP for Scotland – a crushing result for the party if that was to happen.

A report by think-tank Democratic Audit said the recent controversy over MPs' expenses and the recession could combine with the proportional voting system used in the Euro-elections to produce a significant drop in support for the main parties and major gains for smaller groupings.

Think-tank director Stuart Wilks-Heeg, the author of the report What are European Elections For?, said: "This promises to be one of the most unusual elections we have ever seen.

"The voting system, the current political climate, and regional concentrations of support could see smaller parties fare exceptionally well on Thursday.

"If turnout remains at just under 40 per cent and regular voters switch support away from the main parties, rather than stay at home, we would see seats won by the Greens and BNP. We don't expect UKIP to improve on their high water mark of 2004."

Yesterday's report said that the D'Hondt voting system used in Euro-elections in England, Scotland and Wales favours smaller parties, whose share of the vote has steadily increased since 1994.

Based on closed "lists" and dividing the leading party's share of the vote in each counting round, it means that a party with around 10 per cent support can secure an MEP in an eight-seat regional constituency.

The report set out five possible scenarios for tomorrow's election, depending on how many voters desert the main parties for a smaller rival and how many mark their protest by staying at home.

In the scenario most favourable to the smaller parties, Democratic Audit predicted the BNP could win a single seat in as many as five English regions and Greens gain an additional two seats while successfully defending their existing two.

There were also suggestions yesterday that turnout may actually rise because of the political crisis engulfing Westminster.

A new survey from YouGov has suggested that 50 per cent of the electorate have definite plans to vote in the European Parliament election, much higher than previous polls have suggested.

Even accounting for inaccuracies in the voting register this suggests a nominal turnout of 43-45 per cent. If this was replicated at the polling stations tomorrow, turnout would be the highest ever for a European Parliament election in the UK (the 38 per cent who voted in the last European Parliament election in 2004 was the previous high water mark).

Labour criticised Alex Salmond for attacking the pound on Catalan television earlier this year.

Labour's David Martin said: "Membership of the Euro should be subject to the consent of the people and only if it is in the national economic interest. Alex Salmond's plan would give us no choice."

Meanwhile, Mr Salmond urged voters to use their opportunity in the election to give Scotland a strong voice in Europe and to force the UK government to act on key Scottish demands.

Mr Salmond said: "The Westminster government is crumbling, its authority has drained away, and SNP success on Thursday will force the UK government to act on key Scottish demands as well as forcing the pace on an early general election, and delivering a strong Scottish voice in Europe."

Tories call for poll over Lisbon Treaty

THE Conservatives yesterday sought to ratchet up pressure on Gordon Brown ahead of tomorrow's European elections by publishing a bill to pave the way for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

The bill would allow voters to go to the polls this autumn on the same day that Ireland stages its second referendum on the controversial treaty, rejected by voters in the Republic last year. The Tory bill includes provision to repeal the UK's ratification of Lisbon in the case of a "No" vote.

Conservative leader David Cameron said he would not let the Prime Minister "off the hook" over Lisbon and urged voters to use the 4 June election to put pressure on Mr Brown to deliver on Labour's manifesto promise of a referendum on the European Constitution.

Britain ratified the Lisbon Treaty by a parliamentary vote in June last year, but it cannot come into force until all 27 member states have completed this step.

As well as the hurdle of the Irish referendum, the treaty must gain the assent of the Czech president and Poland must also go through the process of depositing its ratification documents.

Meanwhile, the UK Independence Party (Ukip) yesterday introduced a Constitutional Reform Bill in the House of Lords which would take Britain out of the European Union, repeal the Human Rights Act and introduce binding referendum powers. Although Ukip peer Lord Willoughby de Broke is hopeful of securing a first reading for the bill, it has little chance of progressing through parliament.

Why your electoral vote counts and what effect it will have

IN THE next few days, the world will witness one of the most extraordinary events in democratic politics. It will concern 375 million people from more than two dozen countries. And it will take place on your doorstep. I'm referring to the upcoming elections for the European Parliament – the biggest exercise in transnational democracy on the planet.

And your vote matters, because the choice you make will help to shape the European Union's course of action for the next five years.

In fact, this time your vote could be more important than ever before.

There are two reasons for this. First, because the world is going through its deepest economic crisis since the 1930s. Decisive, co-ordinated action across the EU is essential if we are to minimise job losses and rebuild our economies to benefit from the growth areas of the future. And that can only happen with the support of Europe's citizens.

The second reason why your vote is so important is because the European Parliament is poised to become an even more powerful actor in the governance of Europe – if, as I firmly hope, the Lisbon Treaty is ratified and enters into force over the coming months.

Today we face new challenges which have no respect for national borders. Financial crisis, climate change, energy insecurity, international terrorism and pandemics are just some examples. There still is no alternative to the nations of Europe continuing to work together.

Choose members that reflect your views on how to tackle the challenges we all face, because what Europe does will affect you and your daily life.

&#149 European Commission president Jos Manuel Barroso.