It's all going to get messy, but who will be left to clean it up?

Published on Thursday 9 October 2008 21:53

IT IS now a bear market. And Jim Murphy, the new Secretary of State for Scotland, is insisting he will be anything but bullish when it comes to dealing with the SNP. The first phone call made upon hearing he had been promoted to the Cabinet was to his wife, the second to his mother, the third to Iain Gray and the fourth was to the First Minister.

With the markets still wobbly, the youngest member of the Cabinet is waving the white flag to the SNP, calling for Alex Salmond to join him in talks with the Scottish CBI and STUC about the prospects of the Scottish economy (or, as Mr Murphy prefers to term it, "the economy in Scotland").

He is less pedantic about what to call Mr Salmond's administration; he does not have a problem with the term "Scottish Government".

But like any politician, one cannot help but suspect that games are being played. Mr Murphy has spent many months negotiating with the Far Right, as well as the communist governments. He is sure he can get along with a government of the SNP hue.

But playing the non-partisan card ultimately serves Labour. The party wants to disarm the SNP of firing any potshots during the Glenrothes by-election on the 10p tax or high cost of living.

Labour MPs are split over whether the rescue package will ultimately save Mr Brown and their party. The Glenrothes by-election has lost its potential danger. Even if Labour loses, the rebels admit, Mr Brown will stay in post until at least the spring.

Some evangelists insist that the Conservatives have been caught short without any inspiring alternatives. More cautious loyalists admit it could all go badly wrong if the rescue package stabilises the banks, but the economy still goes into an entrenched recession with many lay-offs.

It was shortly before midnight at a restaurant last week that a senior Tory suggested: "Why don't we all withdraw our 300 limit just before midnight, and then again at five minutes past?"

The politician was clearly joking, but this week that suggestion rings far too true for the savers in the Icelandic banks that are in meltdown.

There is confusion about what rights, if any, will be extended to wholesale depositors, ie local authorities. Even some Nationalist politicians seemed alarmed when it was put to them by The Scotsman that, legally, Westminster would not have to bail out Scottish local authorities. But Whitehall insiders think that if England and Wales were bailed out, Scotland would also get aid.

One opposition MP suggested there could be a case for legal challenge: Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, in his statement to the Commons, was not specific on what kind of depositors would be bailed out. He said the government would ensure "no depositor" loses out.

It is all going to get messy, and there are no guarantees that the taxpayer will clean up.