Ian Swanson: Will Scottish voters think independently?

Published on Thursday 15 October 2009 09:50

SIX months from now, the SNP – along with politicians across the UK – will be embroiled in a general election campaign. Just a year after that, the rosettes and posters will be out again for the next Scottish Parliament elections.

If the SNP has its way, there will also be the small matter of a referendum on Scottish independence in between.

So, as the Nationalists gather in Inverness today at the start of their annual conference, they know they face some testing times.

However, First Minister Alex Salmond and his party are in confident mood. Two and a half years into government, when any administration might normally expect a drop in popularity, the SNP remains ahead in the polls. A recent survey of 19 marginal Westminster seats in Scotland gave the SNP a five-point lead over Labour.

Mr Salmond's declared strategy since taking office has been to make a success of governing Scotland under devolution and hope that will help persuade voters to take the extra step to independence.

He appears to be succeeding in the first part of that plan, but there is little sign yet of it paying off in popular support for an independent Scotland.

Mr Salmond has set the target of building on the 2007 Holyrood election victory by getting 20 SNP MPs elected to Westminster – there are seven at the moment. It's a tall order given the first-past-the-post voting system and the relatively few seats where the party is a close second. But pundits are unwilling to write off its chances and the SNP says latest polls suggest it could win as many as 25 seats.

Mr Salmond predicts the Tories will fail to win an overall majority and the SNP, together with the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru, will hold the balance of power. He has previously spoken of a minority government having to "dance to a Scottish jig" and in a change of metaphor he now looks forward to Westminster being "hung by a Scottish rope".

Given that the Lib Dems will far outnumber the SNP, Mr Salmond's dreams of influencing a minority Conservative administration may be short-lived. But his speculation has allowed Labour to claim a vote for the SNP is a vote for the Tories.

The outcome of the general election will determine the context for the Scottish Parliament elections in 2011 but as things stand the Nationalists would be favourites to retain power at Holyrood.

A combination of a weak opposition, an SNP record of populist policies and Mr Salmond's own personality make it difficult to see the SNP being kicked out.

However, the most immediate electoral test, the Glasgow North East by-election, caused by the resignation of Commons Speaker Michael Martin, does not look so promising for the SNP. It's a traditional Labour seat and despite the dramatic Nationalist success nearby in last year's Glasgow East by-election, the odds are on Labour to win this time.

The result could give Gordon Brown a boost, but it is unlikely to do much to dent the SNP, which will talk down its chances in the run-up to the by-election and explain away defeat as all but inevitable in such deep Labour territory.

Back at Holyrood, the likelihood is the SNP will also fail to pass its Referendum Bill paving the way for a vote on independence. Although Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both been wavering on the issue, the chances are they will block the referendum. That could play right into the SNP's hands. Earlier this week Mr Salmond warned if the Bill is defeated, he will make a referendum the key issue for the 2011 elections.

The First Minister and his colleagues do all they can to make the idea of independence as normal and non-threatening as possible. Indeed, they like to give the impression we're halfway there already. The Scottish Executive has become the Scottish Government. They make a good case for why Scotland should have its own representative at the Copenhagen climate change summit and the Year of Homecoming has underlined Scotland's international reputation. Even the controversial decision on the release of the Lockerbie bomber served to highlight Scotland's place in the world.

Mr Salmond hopes Scots will take heart from all this and back the SNP's vision of an independent Scotland.

But it is easy for the independence message to be blown off course. The First Minister cannot have been happy at the weekend media coverage of comments by the SNP's Westminster leader and defence spokesman, Angus Robertson, that English armed forces would be allowed to keep their bases in an independent Scotland.

His claim that Scotland could banish UK nuclear weapons but still share bases, procurement and training was widely ridiculed as "a complete fantasy" and an admission that Scotland could not afford to lose the jobs and investment which UK military bases bring.

Equally unwelcome for Mr Salmond will have been remarks by former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, who said devolution was working well for Scotland but warned breaking away from the UK was "easier said than done" in light of the "hard economic realities" of independence.

Over the next four days, delegates in Inverness will congratulate themselves on proving the SNP is a credible party of government. But they still have a long way to go to realise their ultimate aim of a go-it-alone Scotland.