Ian Swanson: Is this the last stand for Gordon Brown?

Published on Friday 13 November 2009 09:08

THE polls may be against him, the headlines may be hostile and the economic recovery may be fragile, but Gordon Brown is far from giving up.

The Prime Minister was credited this week with one of his best performances to date in the weekly Commons exchange with Tory leader David Cameron.

He is reportedly ready to step up his general election planning by handing Peter Mandelson a key new role putting across Labour's message as "minister for information".

And last night's by-election victory in Glasgow North East – the last test of public opinion before the general election – provides a much-needed boost.

After enduring months of relentless attacks, the Prime Minister is demonstrating the dynamism and drive his critics claimed he did not have. He is showing every sign of being ready for the battle ahead, but the question that persists is whether he is simply preparing for "Gordon's last stand"?

Next Wednesday the Queen's Speech will outline the Government's programme of legislation for the forthcoming final session. It is expected to include measures giving NHS patients new legal rights to maximum waiting times for elective surgery and urgent cancer referrals.

There will also be moves on training, skills and apprenticeship opportunities for young unemployed people. And it is expected to promise an energy Bill, a digital economy Bill and a policing, crime and private security Bill, as well as a constitutional renewal Bill.

At the same time, controversial plans to store information about every phone call, e-mail and internet visit in the UK have been dropped.

Next up will be Chancellor Alistair Darling, setting out his spending plans in the Pre-Budget Report, on 9 December.

He is expected to confirm the return of VAT to 17.5 per cent and give details of government departmental cuts.

Mr Darling could also use the occasion to announce new policies. According to the speculation, these could include an increase in capital gains tax or new charges on financial services companies, with the proceeds going to fund tax cuts for needy households.

Labour has been trailing in UK-wide opinion polls for a long time, but David Cameron has not achieved the same popularity ratings as Tony Blair did ahead of the 1997 election.

And the polls do vary wildly. A "poll of polls" this week predicted a 90-seat Tory majority. It gave the Conservatives 42 per cent, Labour 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 18 per cent.

But another poll published the same day showed a smaller gap of ten per cent between the parties (Conservatives 39 per cent, Labour 29 per cent) and projected a Tory majority of just two. Labour is still hoping next year's election will prove to be the Tories' equivalent of 1992 – when Labour was ahead in the polls and widely expected to win but ended up as losers.

The favourite date for the election is still 6 May, the day of local elections in England.

But there has been speculation that polling day could be brought forward to 25 March. And the last possible date is 3 June – five years after the Parliament first met plus 17 days for an election campaign. Mr Brown got good reviews for his combative performance at this week's Prime Minister's Questions, when he ridiculed the Tory leader's "cast iron" promise of a referendum on Europe and claimed Mr Cameron "doesn't have a clue when it comes to policy".

And now Lord Mandelson – one of Labour's best communicators – is tipped to take on a "minister for information" role on top of his job as business secretary, possibly giving weekly White House-style televised briefings.

He might find he has his work cut out against what looks like a hostile media.

The widespread feeling certainly is that the mood of the nation is set and there is little if anything that the Prime Minister can do about it.

But there is still a ray of light. Interestingly, The Sun's aggressive campaign against Mr Brown over his apparently misspelt letter of sympathy to the mother of soldier Jamie Janes, killed in Afghanistan, appears to have backfired.

The Prime Minister, who has no sight in one eye, admitted his handwriting was bad and apologised to Mrs Janes. A poll found 65 per cent of people thought The Sun's attack was "inappropriate" compared with 23 per cent who felt it was "legitimate". Last night's by-election result is unlikely to turn the tide for Labour, but it does show voters have not entirely closed their ears to Mr Brown.