Ian Swanson: Despite only a brief mention in the Queen's speech, the future of devolution is a key consideration for every political party

Published on Friday 20 November 2009 10:14

SCOTLAND'S future got just one sentence in the Queen's Speech – and even then there was no promise of legislation. Amid the pomp and circumstance of the state opening of parliament, the Queen told the assembled peers and MPs: "In Scotland, my government will take forward proposals in the final report of the commission on Scottish devolution."

A white paper is expected next week, spelling out just what the UK Government plans to do with the proposals published by Sir Kenneth Calman and his colleagues earlier this year for giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, including setting income tax.

But ministers admit there will be no legislation on the matter before the Westminster general election, which must be held before 3 June.

Labour has been accused of kicking Calman into the long grass but Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy's comments after the Queen's Speech on Wednesday were more enthusiastic about increased powers than the party has seemed for some time.

He said: "We are fiercely committed to Calman – we want to make it happen. We want to create a stronger and more accountable Scottish Parliament."

The trouble is, if nothing is going to happen about implementing extra powers before the general election, there is a risk nothing will happen afterwards.

The Tories were joint sponsors of the Calman commission along with Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems have always wanted devolution to go further but after an initial warm welcome, the Conservatives have been noticeably silent on the question of more powers for Holyrood.

If David Cameron becomes Prime Minister, there are now doubts about whether there will be any significant advance in devolution.

Under the Calman proposals, the Scottish Parliament would take responsibility for raising about one third of the money it spends.

The UK Government would set the first 10p of the current 20p basic rate, the first 30p of the 40p band and the first 40p of the new 50p rate which comes in next April, with MSPs having to vote on whether to impose the remaining 10p tax or make it more or less.

The Scottish Government would also be allowed to borrow money, as well as take control of stamp duty, air passenger duty and landfill and mining taxes.

On the non-economic front, Calman proposes devolving power to legislate on air guns, drink- driving, speed limits and elections.

Although the Tories were part of the Calman process, with two peers serving on the commission, the party has never adopted an official line on extending Holyrood's powers.

Now a Tory insider says there are real divisions in Conservative ranks.

Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell wants to see the Calman proposals implemented, even if only for tactical reasons.

The insider says: "David doesn't want the SNP to be able to say a Conservative government with just two or three Scottish MPs is stopping powers coming to Scotland. That would re-open the whole argument about a democratic deficit and there being no mandate in Scotland.

"But many of the MSPs and the majority of the membership on the ground didn't like Calman.

"There is still an element in the grassroots which has not accepted devolution. The last thing they want is extra powers for a parliament they didn't want.

"Then there are those who say 'The SNP wants more powers, so why are we handing them this on a plate?'

"And there are others who fear that because Holyrood is dominated by left-of-centre parties any transfer of tax power would just lead to higher taxes."

The differences over devolution go right to the top. Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie has always been cautious about more powers for Holyrood, while her deputy Murdo Fraser believes the parliament should be raising a proportion of its own revenue.

The insider says: "The party is very split, both the membership and the MSPs. The problem is how we get round that."

The Scottish Government will publish its referendum white paper on St Andrew's Day, detailing its proposals for a full vote on independence by the Scottish public next year.

However, after a long period of remarkably smooth sailing, the SNP is currently experiencing some rougher waters. Last week's Glasgow North East by-election defeat was a serious setback for the Nationalists.

The defeat prompted an attack by former SNP leader Gordon Wilson, who accused ministers of being out of touch with electors and suggested they should "get out more" if they were going to strike back against Labour.

Now Jim Sillars, one of the party's stars from the past, has published a pamphlet challenging some of the SNP's most cherished policies. He argues the party should be ready to drop its opposition to Nato and even accept Trident because, he argues, they are "roadblocks" to independence.

The SNP, however, seems determined to press ahead with its referendum bill, and if other parties refuse to back it, they will be accused of denying the people a say.

Labour will incorporate its proposals on Calman into its general election manifesto for next year and the Tories will be expected to do likewise.

Scotland's constitutional future will form only a tiny part of the election battle, but the outcome will have a major impact on what happens next.