Ian Swanson: Bomber's release just won't depart the Holyrood agenda

Published on Friday 28 August 2009 11:05

KENNY MacAskill will face MSPs again next week over his decision to release Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi.

But talk of the opposition parties forcing a vote of no confidence in the justice secretary has evaporated.

Last week's announcement that Megrahi had been granted compassionate release to return home thrust Mr MacAskill – and Scotland – into the world spotlight and attracted condemnation from politicians and relatives of the victims in America.

Monday's one-day recall of the Scottish Parliament so MSPs could ask questions on the issue turned out to be a bit an anticlimax, but the controversy shows no sign of abating.

A poll published yesterday found public opinion divided, with 43 per cent believing Mr MacAskill's decision was right and 51 per cent saying it was wrong.

That's a rather closer split than some of the opposition claims about public outrage suggested. Indeed, some 39 per cent of Labour voters, 30 per cent of Conservative voters and a massive 57 per cent of Lib Dem voters said he had done the right thing.

Next Wednesday's debate is likely to see both sides repeating many of the claims and counter-claims of the past few days. But how will the controversy play longer term?

Some have suggested it could change the way people view the SNP in government and reduce their chances of winning a second term.

Yesterday's YouGov poll found a six per cent drop in SNP support for both the Westminster and Holyrood elections since June. It also showed support for independence had slumped to 28 per cent, down 12 points since July last year.

Alex Salmond was still by far the most popular choice for First Minister, though.

The SNP said the fact it was still ahead of Labour in the Holyrood constituency vote and seven per cent up on its last Westminster election performance showed the underlying strength of the party's support.

The opposition parties claim the handling of the Megrahi decision has helped put people off independence.

However, one government insider argues that as time goes by, more people will come round to thinking Mr MacAskill's decision was right.

"You just need to think of the alternative, which could have been that he would die in Scotland as a prisoner, with all the ramifications that would carry," he says.

"People opposed to the release need to explain why they would go against the recommendations of the parole board, prison governor and doctors."

American politicians and many of the relatives of those who died in 1988 have spoken out fiercely against the decision, and the poll found 69 per cent of people felt Scotland's reputation had been diminished.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has refused to say whether he agrees with Megrahi's release, arguing it is not only a devolved matter but also a quasi-judicial decision.

That has not stopped other politicians piling in, with Tory leader David Cameron against the release and Labour's former deputy prime minister John Prescott in favour.

Liberal Democrat peer Shirley Williams and Labour's former deputy leader Roy Hattersley both told Book Festival audiences they applauded Mr MacAskill's decision. Paddy Ashdown and Cherie Blair declined to give their views as they were out of the country when the news broke.

But, speaking in Monday's debate, Edinburgh North & Leith Labour MSP Malcolm Chisholm, who broke party ranks by backing the release, said he regretted the politicisation of a quasi-judicial decision – one that must be taken on the evidence available and not over politics.

Labour says it accepts the question of whether or not Megrahi should have been released is a moral one on which people legitimately take different views.

A spokesman says: "Iain Gray's view is that because Megrahi showed no compassion to the victims, because he had served only eight years of a 27-year sentence and because of the enormity of the crime, it was wrong to show him compassion. But we absolutely respect people who hold different views."

Labour says, however, it has not decided whether it will allow a free vote next week.

It seems the opposition parties are now likely to concentrate more on challenging the detail of how the issue was handled, but there is a danger the debate descends into political point-scoring.

The bigger picture is that the realpolitik of the West's desire to establish favourable relations with Libya meant Megrahi was always likely to end up going home, one way or another.

Despite Labour's insistence otherwise, there is every likelihood a Labour justice secretary would have made the same decision. The US and UK governments were only too pleased the responsibility fell to Holyrood.

Mr MacAskill said on Monday he stood by his decision and would "live with the consequences". No-one can yet be sure what those will be.