Ian Swanson: Alex follows rocky road to conference

Published on Friday 19 March 2010 09:03

Lunchgate, an apology to parliament and a plunge in poll ratings are not the best backdrop for an SNP conference intended to boost election chances. Political Editor Ian Swanson reports

ALEX Salmond will use the SNP's conference in Aviemore this weekend as a launch pad for the party's General Election campaign.

The Nationalists will parade their most promising candidates and repeat as much as possible their recently-unveiled campaign slogan, "Scotland needs champions".

But the two-day pre-election gathering comes as the SNP recovers from a rocky period and faces up to the prospect of being sidelined by the other parties in the Westminster contest.

The First Minister and his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, were both caught up in the Lunchgate controversy when the party was found to have auctioned off the chance to lunch with them in the Scottish Parliament restaurant to raise funds.

The parliament's sleaze watchdog dismissed complaints that the pair had broken the MSPs' code of conduct, but the presiding officer ruled the restaurant should not be used for party fund- raising.

And Ms Sturgeon found herself at the centre of her own controversy after it emerged she had written a letter in support of a convicted fraudster, asking that he be spared jail.

She won plaudits from across the political spectrum for her dignified and well-judged apology in the chamber, but it was still an embarrassing episode for a politician who has not made many slips.

This bad spell for the SNP was capped by an opinion poll showing the party had plummeted in the polls.

The YouGov survey found the Nationalists were a full 17 points behind Labour when Scots were asked how they would vote at the General Election. Labour had 38 per cent support to the SNP's 21 per cent, just ahead of the Tories on 20 per cent with the Lib Dems on 15 per cent.

Even for Holyrood, the SNP trailed Labour and dipped below 30 per cent for the first time since winning power in 2007. The poll gave Labour 33 per cent, the SNP 28 per cent and the Tories and Lib Dems 16 per cent each.

But perhaps most disturbing for the Nationalists was the survey's finding that Alex Salmond – widely regarded as the SNP's biggest electoral asset – now has a negative popularity rating.

In the poll, 36 per cent said he was doing a good job, compared with 38 per cent who said he was doing badly.

In contrast, despite the bullying claims against Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister was judged to be doing a good job by a margin of 43 per cent to 35 per cent.

How could Scotland's super-confident First Minister lose out to the man so often branded a ditherer and unable to communicate?

Incidentally, Tory leader David Cameron had the most negative rating of all the major leaders with 28 per cent of Scots saying he was doing a good job against 33 per cent who said he was doing badly.

In some ways, the remarkable thing is that it has taken so long for the SNP's popularity to wane. The party's poll ratings have remained surprisingly buoyant during its nearly three years in power.

But the dip augurs badly for the General Election, now probably just over six weeks away.

Mr Salmond's target of winning 20 Westminster seats was always ambitious. Now it is beginning to look impossible.

There are only a handful of seats where the SNP came a close enough second last time to pose a real threat unless there is a spectacular surge of electoral support.

And the refusal of broadcasters to allow the SNP into the three televised leaders' debates planned for the election campaign threatens to put the party at a severe disadvantage.

The much-hyped, 90-minute exchanges may in the end prove a bit of a turn-off for viewers, but the build-up and post-match analysis will still dominate much of the election coverage.

And if Mr Salmond is not there on screen with the three UK party leaders, the SNP risks not being considered an equal contender on the ballot paper.

Mr Salmond has spoken enthusiastically about the idea of a hung parliament where the London parties could be made to "dance to a Scottish jig". Even if he doesn't get his 20 MPs, the SNP could still play an important role if no party has an overall majority after the election. It all depends on the arithmetic.

But given the Nationalists' dramatic victory in the 2007 Holyrood elections and Mr Salmond's confidently-set target, it will be a setback for the SNP if its Commons contingent does not at least get into double figures.

However, the party will also be breathing a sigh of relief about its current position – relief that it is the Westminster elections which are looming so close and not the Holyrood ones.

If voters were being asked to choose their MSPs in May rather than their MPs, the polls suggest Mr Salmond would be handing over the keys of Bute House to Labour's Iain Gray.

Luckily for the First Minister and his colleagues, there is a year to go until the Scottish Parliament elections.

It's impossible to predict what the political situation will be by then – the outcome of the Westminster elections could well mean a dramatic change in the dynamics at Holyrood.

But from Mr Salmond's point of view, he will at least have time to try to restore the SNP's position.