General Election 2010: Parties all agree it'll go right down to the wire

Published on Wednesday 5 May 2010 10:09

THE battle for votes in the city's key constituencies is going right to the wire.

Liberal Democrats are optimistic they can win Edinburgh South, one of Scotland's most marginal seats, from Labour, although it has also been targeted by the Tories.

A close fight has developed in Edinburgh North & Leith, and the SNP is still talking up its chances in Edinburgh East.

Edinburgh South

The national Lib Dem surge sparked by Nick Clegg's televised debate performance may have been just what the party needed to secure victory in one of the most marginal seats in Scotland.

The party had high hopes of taking Edinburgh South in 2005 and was shocked when it fell just 405 votes short. It has been determined to avoid a repeat of that disappointment.

Candidate Fred Mackintosh says: "There is everything to play for. Getting the vote out is the key thing."

But one Lib Dem insider predicts Mr Mackintosh will win "with 2,000 votes to spare".

Former Labour MP Nigel Griffiths' last-minute decision to stand down left new candidate Ian Murray with little time to establish himself, but he has run a feisty campaign.

A Labour insider says Mr Murray could still confound all the predictions by holding on to the seat. The party's priority tomorrow will be getting out its core vote in areas like Liberton and Gilmerton.

The Tories – who lost the seat to Labour in 1987 – have also targeted the constituency, but a party source concedes privately the Lib Dems look poised to win.

Edinburgh North & Leith

Labour and the Liberal Democrats predict a close finish in a seat which Labour has held since 1945, but which has been swamped with Lib Dem literature in the past few weeks.

Lib Dem challenger Kevin Lang says: "There is a real sense that it is time for a change from Labour and since the first TV debate there has been a very positive swing behind the Lib Dems."

A senior Lib Dem source says: "It will go to the wire, but we might just squeak it."

Labour's Mark Lazarowicz, who has been the MP since 2001, says he is pleased with the response on the doorstep. "The Labour vote is strengthening," he says. "As the crunch moment of choice comes closer, people see the importance of this election."

The Lib Dems are targeting the seat because they came a strong second last time without putting in any special effort, but that was when feelings were running high on the Iraq war.

A Labour insider says: "There has been a bit of a Lib Dem surge because of the debates, but it has only taken them to where they were in 2005, not beyond that."

Edinburgh East

Labour believes its candidate Sheila Gilmore is on course to win the seat which veteran MP Gavin Strang has held for the past 40 years, but the SNP's George Kerevan claims it is "too close to call". He says: "It will go right to the wire."

The Nationalists are targeting Edinburgh East after winning the equivalent seat at the 2007 Holyrood elections.

Mr Kerevan claims many traditional Labour supporters are still undecided and the result will depend on whether they choose to stick with Labour, vote SNP or stay at home.

A Labour source says: "Pockets of Craigmillar may go to the SNP, but generally our vote is pretty solid."

Edinburgh South West

Chancellor Alistair Darling has been targeted relentlessly in his own seat by the Conservatives, but looks likely to survive.

Tory candidate Jason Rust says he expects "a good result" and reports good support in traditionally Labour areas such as Oxgangs and Colinton Mains.

However, a senior Tory source admits it is unlikely the Chancellor can be defeated, but predicts his 7,242 majority will be "well down".

The Lib Dems will be hoping the decision by their candidate Tim McKay to spend three weeks of the campaign in Australia will not mean too humiliating a drop in their vote.

Edinburgh West

The Lib Dems have little to worry about in the seat which gave them their second biggest majority in the UK at the last general election. Ex-policeman Mike Crockart is certain to take over from retiring MP John Barrett. The only question is whether the current 13,600 majority will drop below five figures.

East Lothian

A traditionally safe Labour seat suddenly became more interesting for the opposition parties when a long-running feud between MP Anne Moffat and the local party ended in her last-minute de-selection.

New Labour candidate Fiona O'Donnell says party members have rallied to the cause, and with the opposition vote splintered fairly evenly between the other parties, Labour looks likely to hold on.

Midlothian

William Gladstone's "Midlothian campaign" might have swept the Liberals into government in 1880, but Nick Clegg's party is not about to repeat that feat this time. Labour's David Hamilton is sure to be re-elected.

Livingston

Public anger over the scandal of Jim Devine's expenses put normally safe Livingston on Labour's vulnerable list.

SNP candidate Lis Bardell claims there are a lot of fed-up Labour supporters not sure what they are going to do tomorrow. "It feels close and all to play for," she says.

Mr Devine had a 2,680 majority when he won the by-election after Robin Cook's death.

Ms Bardell says Mr Devine's behaviour is an issue. "Many Labour voters are very scunnered and the trust issue is part of that. When it was announced he was getting legal aid that was the final straw for some."

But Labour's Graeme Morrice says: "I'm quietly confident. We've done the work and spoken to thousands on the doorstep. There's no doubt people want a Labour government and don't want to see the Tories get back in power. We're also finding a softening of the SNP vote."

Linlithgow & Falkirk East

Labour is confident Michael Connarty, MP for the past 18 years, will be re-elected tomorrow. The seat is one the SNP would have to win to reach its 20 target, but that would require a swing of 12.1 per cent.

Criticisms fly as Scottish leaders set out on final campaigning drive

SCOTTISH Labour leader Iain Gray launched an attack on the Liberal Democrats after visiting an Edinburgh pensioner who will no longer receive help from the city council to look after her garden.

Blind Rose Farrell, 80, of Newtoft Street, Gilmerton, used to get her grass cut free under the garden aid scheme, but now the council has introduced a 75 charge which Ms Farrell says she cannot afford.

Mr Gray, who was accompanied by Edinburgh South Labour candidate Ian Murray, said: "This is an example of the kind of decision the Liberal Democrats make when they get into power. They are not looking after the interests of the most vulnerable.

"This is not happening just in Edinburgh. In East Lothian, the Lib Dems run the council with the SNP and they have just shut a popular nursing home, got rid of home helps and cut school transport."

Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie stopped off in Edinburgh during a tour of the party's 11 target seats around Scotland.

She met up with Neil Hudson, Conservative candidate for Edinburgh South, in Morningside.

She claimed voters were ready for a "fresh start".

Ms Goldie said: "All across the country I'm hearing the same message: Britain needs change and Scotland can be part of it."

SNP leader Alex Salmond chose the train for his whistlestop tour of key seats. He was accompanied by Edinburgh East candidate George Kerevan at Waverley station and also took in Linlithgow.

The Scottish Greens targeted older voters by setting out how they would increase the state pension.

Students elect for all-nighter

THE results of the general election will be shown on a big screen at Edinburgh University on Thursday night.

A special election party has been organised for students at the Teviot from 9pm until 3am.