General Election 2010: Cameron's in poll position as Lib Dems falter

Published on Saturday 1 May 2010 20:22

DAVID Cameron last night appeared to be pulling away from the Liberal Democrats and Labour as a series of polls suggested that the Conservatives were extending their lead over their rivals.

As the election race entered the final lap, there was evidence that the Lib Dems were slipping back as Conservative fortunes rose – although the indications were that Cameron was still short of the support needed for an overall majority.

A poll for ComRes put the Tory lead at ten percentage points over Labour and 13 points beyond the Lib Dems, Cameron's strongest position since February and one of several encouraging polls for the Tories that led to their spinners suggesting they could secure a narrow outright majority if the momentum continues.

With 38 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives would be in line for 315 seats – 11 short of an overall majority. Labour was on 28 per cent with 236 seats, the Liberal Democrats had 25 per cent – a result that would give them 69 seats.

The other parties were in line for a total of 12 seats between them, suggesting that Alex Salmond's alliance with the Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru could come into play in the event of a hung parliament.

Another survey by pollsters Angus Reid was also encouraging for Cameron, putting the Tories 12 points clear of Labour but still short of an overall majority. The Tories were on 35 per cent, while Labour was way down at 23 per cent, the party's worst rating in a mainstream poll for almost a year.

The Lib Dems were in second place on 29 per cent, avoiding some of the slippage observed elsewhere.

But an ICM poll, also published yesterday, showed that the Lib Dems had dropped four points since a similar survey last week to slump into third place behind Labour.

The poll put the Conservatives on 36 per cent (up one point compared with a similar survey last week). Once again Labour was below the 30 per cent threshold on 29 (but up three points on the previous week) and the Lib Dems on 27 per cent (down four).

If repeated at the election on an even swing across the country, the figures would leave Cameron at the head of the largest party in the Commons with 279 MPs – 47 short of an outright majority.

Labour would take 261 seats, but the encouraging news for Clegg was that, in common with the other polls, the Lib Dems would still hold the balance of power with 78 MPs.

Earlier, Clegg had tried to get Lib Dem momentum going again after his excellent start to the campaign by saying his party was the "positive rallying point" for change.

He played up his party's chances of achieving their best result for decades amid growing signs the election had developed into a two-horse race between his party and the Tories, thanks to Gordon Brown's catastrophic last few days.

Brown himself admitted that he was fighting for his political life after he called Rochdale pensioner Gillian Duffy a "bigoted woman" in an incident that has almost certainly fatally damaged his chances of continuing in Downing Street.

The Prime Minister made the admission on a day that saw him renew attacks on the Tories and also saw a heckler having to be forcibly ejected from a campaign event in Sunderland.

Clegg also had trouble with hecklers as he campaigned in Malvern, Worcestershire, where two men had to be dragged away by his security team as they shouted and tried to make their way towards the Lib Dem leader.

Brown's difficulties, and his own performance in the debates, led to Clegg claiming that "the sky's the limit". He said his party was now campaigning optimistically in constituencies that only a few months ago they thought were well beyond them.

"We are certainly now campaigning hard in more seats – scores and scores of more seats – than we ever have done since the Lib Dems started," he said.

Clegg claimed that disaffected Labour voters were flocking to his party, which has now targeted more than 100 seats across the country.

"They feel very let down after 13 years," he said.

"They kind of feel that on the hope for political reform, on the hope for progress on civil liberties, on the hope for greater fairness in the tax system, a new approach to foreign affairs, they are now looking to the Liberal Democrats."

Campaigning in his Oxfordshire constituency, Cameron vowed to give "everything I've got" in the closing days of the campaign and he dismissed talk of deals with the Liberal Democrats.

In an upbeat message to party activists, he said he was approaching the last days of the campaign with "energy, energy, energy".

Cameron encountered two demonstrations of British National Party supporters. But refused to be distracted, saying: "All I'm thinking of in these last six days is how to secure the victory – not because it would be good for the Conservative Party but because it would be good for our country."

In Sunderland, the man he is hoping to replace disagreed, warning that a Conservative government would see the loss of thousands of public sector worker jobs.

As Brown spoke, Lord Mandelson was trying to rally activists in the background. In a campaign memo, the Business Secretary insisted that the election was still a "three-horse race", despite the rise of the Lib Dems.

Brown maintained he was up for the battle ahead. He said: "(I'm] absolutely determined. I'm fighting not just for my life, but I'm fighting for what I believe is important for the future of the country."

But a scuffle disrupted his speech when Julian Borthwick, 38, had to be manhandled from the room by Labour activists. Borthwick had shouted: "What about that bigoted woman?" – a reference to Brown's gaffe last week.

Brown continued with his speech, only saying that there would be "plenty of time" to ask questions afterwards. Borthwick later said he was angry that Brown had such limited contact with the public during the campaign.