David Torrance: Outcome shows just how much Conservative Party has changed

Published on Saturday 5 November 2011 00:00

THE election of Ruth Davidson as leader is the culmination of a remarkably quick rise through the ranks of a party that has traditionally valued safe pairs of hands and time-served candidates over fresh-faced MSPs with little experience of the party and its byzantine structures.

Davidson more than held her own during a lengthy leadership campaign, responding slickly at hustings and in television interviews. She was, however, weak on policy and strategy, shortcomings that did not seem to improve as the campaign progressed. Ironically, despite presenting herself as the “change” candidate, Davidson ended up proposing the least change of the three front-runners.

With the backing of only two Tory MSPs, Davidson finds herself in a similar position to Ed Miliband as leader of the UK Labour Party. Most Labour MPs backed his brother David, and in Scotland most of the 15-strong Conservative MSP group backed Murdo Fraser. Although Fraser made it clear he would support whoever won the leadership, it remains an obvious point of tension.

Will the Scottish Tory party split? It’s not impossible, but at this stage it is unlikely. There would be little to be gained by either camp, and most likely the half-dozen or so MSPs who supported Fraser will pledge allegiance to Davidson, although perhaps with varying degrees of enthusiasm.

Davidson’s leadership pitch boiled down to this: she’s a fresh face, unencumbered with the ideological baggage of the 1980s, and she will work harder at connecting with non-Tory voters. Both are reasonable positions, but there is little evidence either will work. Since 1997, the Scottish Tory party has experimented with popular leaders and all sorts of re-engagement strategies, yet the downward trajectory has continued.

Another problem is the lack of any convincing strategy for the Scottish Conservatives in the run-up to an independence referendum likely to be held in 2015 or even 2016.

Davidson’s view is that the existing Scotland Bill ought to be “the line in the sand” on the constitutional question, but going into such a campaign urging a “no, no” vote when most opinion polls show the majority of Scots support greater powers for the Scottish Parliament presents an obvious dilemma.

Despite her media background, Davidson also lacks enthusiastic support among the Fourth Estate, most of whom were broadly supportive of Fraser’s plan to disband the party and start from scratch.

DAVIDSON and her media advisers (it still isn’t certain if veteran spin doctor Ramsay Jones, an apparent Davidson supporter, will return to the fold) will have to work very hard to gain positive coverage in the months ahead.

Davidson will also have to prove her credentials at the weekly First Minister’s Questions, a major challenge given Alex Salmond’s continued dominance of the Holyrood chamber and the Scottish political scene in general. Perhaps as a young, energetic woman Davidson will be able to pull that off. She is also openly gay which, if nothing else, demonstrates how much the Scottish Conservative Party, and indeed Scotland, has changed.

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jock in the box

Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 07:30 PM

4 Im sure that is correct. Murdo Fraser was not going anywhere quickly, but at least he knew what needed to change if the centre right were to survive north of the Tweed. You have to wonder what do these dinosaurs have between their ears? They are just alien to Scotland . You either adapt or you are terminal. You have not adapted........................

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samcoldstream

Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 01:05 PM

A third of registered members of the Scots Tory Party failed to turn out and vote? Only 5,500 of the 8,500 members cast their franchise? In the Scots Tory constitution, voting is not compulsory, but it hardly engenders any faith in the leadership result, or future of this unelectable political party?

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florian albert

Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 12:10 PM

The problem remains that, long post-Thatcher, few Scots will entertain the idea of voting Tory. Nothing Ruth Davidson has said or done suggests this will alter. It may require Scotland to undergo an earthquake camparable to the Thatcher revolution before this changes. (Fraser Nelson's comment - 'the first openly Glaswegian leader' - is worth repeating.)

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4

The auld lies will nae wash any mair

Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 10:15 AM

The Tory party blew it big time when they forsook their only chance of honourable rehabilitation by choosing Ms Davidson instead of Murdo Fraser as leader. For the Tory party as it stands is a toxic brand in Scotland supported by but a very few right wing diehards so any efforts to resurrect it are doomed to absolute failure no matter what Ms Davidson may think and try to do. Her brand of "Michael Forsyth style politics" was consigned to the dustbin of history long ago by Scots voters and there it will remain forever.

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The Harder They Come

Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 07:03 AM

The tories hate scotland, thatis why they will be supporting 'no,no' - same old nasty party.

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The Harder They Come

Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 07:02 AM

Remarkably quick and devisive, Murdo should setup hismpadty, it's clear the membership ismsplit and the majority of the party and it's supporters are behind him. ruth Davidson offers MOR.

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Angus McLellan

Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 01:46 AM

As expected, interesting stuff from David Torrance. He is right when he says this result shows how the SCUP has changed although I think he missed one important change. After a very high profile election campaign barely five and half thousand votes were cast in this leadership election. Worse yet, the impressionistic evidence provided by TV coverage of the various hustings suggested to me that many of those voters would be far closer to the grave than to the cradle. So Ruth Davidson has her work cut out for her. Not only will she want to reverse the decline in Tory voters, she also needs - perhaps more urgently - to reverse the decline in Tory activist numbers. Under other circumstances I'd wish Ms Davidson luck, for she will certainly need it, but that will have to wait until after the referendum.

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