Analysis: Could it be a repeat performance for SNP?

Published on Wednesday 13 August 2008 22:08

SUCH is the depth of Labour's problems that hardly anyone expects the party successfully to defend a majority of almost 11,000 in a seat vacated by the death of a popular local MP.

John MacDougall was popular in the area and cultivated a solid personal vote – the SNP will need a 14 per cent swing to seize the constituency in a by-election.

In any other circumstances, Labour would go into the contest expecting to do well, but these are anything but normal times.

The bookmakers made the SNP 1/4 on to win the constituency last night, simply because Labour is in such a hopeless mess.

So where does this leave Alex Salmond and the SNP?

In part, the Nationalists are a victim of their own success. Their win in Glasgow East was so monumental, taking such a safe Labour seat, that they have raised expectations to an extraordinary level.

It is not quite at the stage where failure to win Glenrothes would be seen as a significant setback, but it is getting close.

The SNP does have a lot going for it in the area. It won the corresponding Scottish Parliament constituency at last year's Holyrood elections and controls Fife Council. The party has a strong activist base in the area and showed in Glasgow East that it can deploy an effective by-election machine if needs be.

If the SNP was to win in Glenrothes, it would set Mr Salmond well on the way to his target of 20 MPs at the next election.

Just a few weeks ago, he had only six MPs. By the end of the year he could have eight. Suddenly, that 20-seat target does not seem so far away.

If the Nationalists did get their 20 MPs, it would give them significant influence at Westminster and neither of the big parties could afford to ignore their demands.

There is another possible development which might alter the SNP's focus. Labour leaders at Holyrood are waiting for Jack McConnell's decision on when he intends to stand down as the MSP for Motherwell and Wishaw so he can go to Malawi as the UK's High Commissioner.

The former first minister has said he won't make a decision until he gets confirmation of his appointment from the Foreign Office.

If the Foreign Office endorses his appointment, his contract should come to him soon, which means he could stand down in the next couple of months, forcing a by-election for Holyrood on the same day as the Glenrothes poll.

That would probably help Labour, allowing them to split the SNP's resources into two different parts of the country and, if Labour lost both, they would only have to deal with one day of bad news, not two.

Mr Salmond will, however, view both potential contests as further golden opportunities to extend his current hegemony over Labour.