Analysis: Compromise on the cards, but a by-election could prove crucial

Published on Sunday 7 September 2008 22:20

THE compromise offered by the Liberal Democrats will force the SNP to show if it is serious about abolishing council tax.

Both the Nationalists and the Lib Dems have long believed there should be an income-based form of local taxation.

But there had been a feeling that the SNP was hoping to fail with its proposal of a centrally set 3p income tax supplement so that the party could go into the next election able to blame the others for keeping the "hated" council tax.

But Mr Purvis has accepted a solution being openly aired by senior Nationalist MSPs which has put the ball back in John Swinney's court. On the basis of this compromise, there would most likely be 63 votes in favour of LIT and 65 against.

But the Greens – who have two MSPs and are no lovers of the council tax – have also shifted their position over the weekend from opposing an income-based alternative. So it is possible a solution involving their land value tax plan – or "garden tax" – could be found, perhaps targeted at developers.

That would then be enough for a 65 to 63 majority.

However, there is also the possibility of a by-election in Motherwell and Wishaw – the seat of Labour's Jack McConnell, the former First Minister – to consider.

If Mr McConnell wants to take up the post of High Commissioner of Malawi he will have to quit in the not too distant future.

And few people would dare bet against the Nationalists winning that by-election considering their popularity and Labour's dismal state, especially after Glasgow East.

Given that it will take time for the legislation to go through the SNP may have won the by-election by the time the crucial vote comes, bringing the pro-LIT lobby up to 64. In those circumstances they could ignore the Green's land value tax proposal and try to win over Independent MSP Margo MacDonald.

Then it will not matter that almost every organisation in Scotland opposes it or if the Treasury stamps its feet – Scotland will have LIT for better or worse.