Parties prepare for snap election in March

Published on Sunday 13 December 2009 21:52

POLITICAL parties are on a war footing for an early election as 25 March emerged as the most likely date that Gordon Brown is planning to go to the polls.

&#149 Gordon Brown, kitted out in helmet and body armour, showed his support for troops in Afghanistan by becoming the first prime minister to spend the night in a war zone since Winston Churchill

The Scotsman understands the Prime Minister is being urged by senior Labour figures to hold a snap election before the Budget has to be presented, in early April.

A fierce debate is raging within the party over whether it would be better to go to the polls early or wait to allow a possible economic recovery to boost Labour's support.

Labour MP Gordon Banks last night said the argument for an early election was beginning to be won.

Conservative leader David Cameron said the last Thursday in March was "a likely date" and said his party was "clearing the manifestos" in preparation.

Mr Brown's surprise visit to Afghanistan over the weekend also hinted at an early poll. The trip to visit troops – which saw him become the first prime minister since the Second World War to stay overnight in a war zone – was seen as an early campaign move by the PM to portray himself as a strong leader.

Some bookmakers have stopped taking bets on 25 March as the likely election date after Chancellor Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report last week was vague on the details of cuts to come and offered a few potential election giveaways.

A full Budget, unlikely to contain much to entice voters because of the pressure on government spending of the recession, must be presented to parliament before 5 April.

Mr Banks, MP for Ochil and South Perthshire, will defend a marginal constituency and could have an election co-ordination role in Scotland.

He said last night: "There has been a lot of focus in the last week on an early date, possibly 25 March, for an election.

"Of course, that could change several times in the coming weeks. But my feeling is that there are many strong arguments for 25 March.

"It would be pre-Budget and from a tactical point of view it would provide the Prime Minister with a bit of flexibility before running out of time."

Privately, several other Labour MPs have supported Mr Banks' view. The case for an early election is also backed up by recent polls, which appear to show Labour closing the gap on the Conservatives.

Yesterday, however, two polls gave differing accounts of opinion in the country. A YouGov survey showed that Labour had narrowed the Conservative's lead to nine points – 40 per cent to 31 per cent – while a Comres poll saw the Conservative lead increase to 17 points, to 41 per cent against 24 per cent.

The gap is significant because of the way Westminster constituency boundaries are drawn – a lead of less than 10 per cent in the polls for the Conservatives could see a hung parliament, or even a small majority for Labour.

Mr Cameron yesterday said: "I have said to all my team to be ready in the New Year for an early election. All systems are go, we are clearing manifestos."

His announcement that a Conservative government would bring in legislation forcing peers and MPs to pay tax in the UK was taken as a sign that he wanted to get his party's house in order early.

Specifically, allegations have been made that much of party deputy chairman and leading donor Lord Ashcroft's money is in a tax haven and Labour have suggested they intend to use this as part of their campaign.

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, a leading political analyst, said: "It just goes to show how bad things are for Labour that being nine points behind the Conservatives is a reason to discuss an early election."

Private debates are taking place in Westminster over whether March, April or May would be the best time for a vote.

Most Labour figures believe the last possible date of 3 June would be "suicidal" because it would give them almost no room for manoeuvre.

Labour peer and former minister Lord George Foulkes urged the Prime Minister to hold the election on 6 May, the day of the English council elections. "While there are strong arguments coming for March and April I still believe that 6 May is the optimum date because it will give us time to allow people to feel the effects of an economic recovery," he said.

However, others privately fear that while the economy is recovering, unemployment may still be increasing, which could be a major setback for Labour in trying to win back support.

A source close to the Prime Minister tried to dampen the speculation around an early poll yesterday, suggesting that Mr Brown would not want to go to the country before British Summer Time comes in. Historically, Labour voters are less likely to come out in bad weather or dark conditions to vote and he argued that the Prime Minister would not want to take any unnecessary risks.

"The issue of daylight hours is particularly important in Scotland," he said.

"There is a lot of speculation going on and of course we are ready to fight an election as soon as the Prime Minister calls it, but I do not see any reason to suggest it will not be May."

Children's Secretary Ed Balls also played down reports that Mr Brown could go for an early election.

There are concerns within Labour that an early poll would not take the Conservatives by surprise.

In addition, the Tories have greater financial support to draw on which allows them to be prepared more quickly.

And nowhere are the Tories more publicly ready for an election campaign than in Scotland.

Over the weekend the party named Holyrood chief whip David McLetchie as their campaign co-ordinator, leading to accusations that their sole Scottish MP, David Mundell, who is the party's shadow Scottish secretary, has been sidelined.

The Conservatives also listed the 11 seats they are targeting to make a comeback north of the Border: Angus; Argyll and Bute; Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Dumfries and Galloway; Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale; East Renfrewshire; Edinburgh South; Edinburgh South West; Perth and North Perthshire; Stirling; and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine.

A party spokesman said: "We are ready to go tomorrow if necessary."

Despite the Lib Dems being at almost half their support rate against the 2005 election, the party is confident of holding its 11 seats in Scotland.

The Nationalists are also preparing for an early election. They point to a recent Mori poll which suggests they are ahead of Labour by two points in Scotland on people who will definitely vote, giving them 16 seats, up ten on 2005, but still short of the 20 Alex Salmond is aiming for.

POLLS APART

SINCE the Second World War there have been three early elections with mixed consequences for the prime ministers who called them.

The last one was in 1974 when Edward Heath took on the industrial unrest being caused by the unions and regular strikes in an election on 23 February.

His question "Who runs Britain?" was answered with "not you" when Labour won with a majority of 33.

Since then the received wisdom has been to hold mid-year elections in April, May and June.

However, the previous early poll had been a resounding success. When Harold Wilson went to the country on 31 March, 1966, his government had a majority of just four; after that election he had an enormous one of 96.

But a previous attempt by a Labour prime minister to win an election early in the year was almost calamitous.

Clement Attlee had won a record-breaking majority of 146 in 1945. But after going to the country almost five years later on 28 February, 1950 he found himself with a majority of just five.