Owen Kelly: It’s time we had answers to all the uncertainties

Published on Tuesday 10 January 2012 02:02

THE purpose of a referendum is to remove uncertainty by answering a big question for good and all.

Uncertainty about the outcome is intrinsic to any referendum process. The debate is not, therefore, about whether or not there is uncertainty, but about its extent and how it is managed.

From a business perspective, it might be possible to argue that uncertainty is not created by the referendum process, but only if one believed that its outcome would have no bearing on business at all. But nobody makes this argument, because the effects on business, good or bad, could be profound.

And we are all familiar with the concept of “planning blight”, when uncertainty about a planning application delays investment in neighbouring properties.

The inherent uncertainty about the actual outcome of a referendum is augmented by uncertainties surrounding the nature of the change proposed. We think some of these uncertainties can be eliminated or mitigated by investigation. Indeed, we believe this would make for a better informed decision in the referendum.

For us, the main areas of uncertainty about independence are the currency, financial regulation, membership of the EU and whether the UK single market for goods and services would be affected.

At the moment, the only tools we have for tackling these uncertainties are assertions and counter-assertions from our politicians. We need to look for some authoritative answers.

The Prime Minister observed that “business never likes uncertainty” and he is, of course, correct. But business does not cease altogether in the face of uncertainty. The impacts of uncertainty will vary. But there are impacts.

• Owen Kelly is the chief executive of Scottish Financial Enterprise.

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Kinghob

Tuesday, January 10, 2012 at 11:44 PM

The person writing here appears to simply be repeating the mundane deliberately negative speculation of the uk westminster bunch (Tory labour Libdem-all say the same) about this 'uncertainty" and the imaginary effects................ so he speculates here and yet demands answers to questions that have been already answered, and now we have Autumn 2014 as a target so that's another one answered!

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wee-scamp

Tuesday, January 10, 2012 at 09:19 AM

Yes its true that the impact of independence on the financial services sector could be profound. For example, an independent Scotland is far less likely to tolerate low levels of support for start-ups and early stage companies, insufficient funding of the commercialisation of technology, the poor treatment of SMEs when it comes to bank loans, the sale of important Scottish companies to overseas buyers and of course undeserved bonuses,

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