Oil price riddle

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Can it be assumed the price of oil will rise inexorably over the next decade as David McEwen Hill suggests (Letters, 8 May)?

Arguably, many upbeat announcements from different oil-producing countries throw doubt on this forecast. 
Moreover, it is highly debatable if Scottish oil reserves will translate automatically into large government revenues.

Won’t the global oil companies, along with countries such as China, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, expect a considerable share?

Putting Scotland’s oil into perspective, it was reported this week that one Iraq oilfield has reserves equal to all the North Sea. Also, from an oil price viewpoint, it is interesting the oil company pumping out 200,000 barrels a day from this field gets a fee of just $1.39 a barrel.

Ellis Thorpe

Old Chapel Walk