Obama surge stuns Democrats

Published on Monday 11 February 2008 21:37

Party's backing of Clinton at odds with public's choice and super delegates reconsider pledges as polls predict newcomer most likely to beat McCain

YOU won't have heard of her, but Christine Samuels, a New Jersey politician, has assured herself a footnote in the history of the United States's primary election process. This weekend she became the first so-called super delegate of the Democratic Party to swap sides, announcing that she had switched from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama.

Ms Samuels' move has highlighted the controversial role these unelected delegates play in the primary process – and the nightmare scenario that is unfolding for the party top brass.

Unlike regular delegates, the 796 super delegates are not elected by the voters. They are appointed by the party itself, accounting for a fifth of the delegates who vote at the summer convention in Denver to elect the presidential nominee.

And the nightmare for the party leaders is what happens if Mr Obama wins the popular vote, but Mrs Clinton wins the nomination thanks to support of these supers delegates. Present trends make this ever more likely. Mr Obama is winning in the ballot box, but Mrs Clinton has a nearly two-to-one superiority in super delegates, partly thanks to the influence of her husband, former president, Bill.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. Super delegates were appointed in the 1960s to give the party bosses a trump card in the primary process. "The super delegates were supposed to represent the institutional interest of the larger party, as opposed to the crazies in the street," said Phil Noble, a Democratic pollster.

Super delegates include all Democratic members of Congress and governors, as well as ex-presidents and assorted party officials.

In most primary contests they remain in the shadows, as a clear winner soon emerges. Even on the one occasion when they made a difference, in electing Walter Mondale against Gary Hart in 1984, Mr Mondale had won the most regular votes. Never have the supers had to go against the popular vote.

All that could change this summer. The Associated Press says that 213 super delegates are for Mrs Clinton and 139 for Mr Obama.

Already this has created a bizarre situation where Mr Obama has won more states, has more regular delegates and 200,000 more voters, yet is behind Mrs Clinton when all delegates, regular and super, are totted up.

Mr Obama has now warned super delegates to consider carefully how to vote. "My strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged (regular] delegates from the most voters in the country, that it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters," he said. Translation: The party top brass can expect trouble from the millions of youngsters who have backed Mr Obama.

But Mrs Clinton insists there is nothing irregular about super delegates voting for her: "Super delegates are supposed to exercise independent judgment."

Party leaders fear trouble. Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Convention, last week urged both Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama to come to an "arrangement" before the convention to decide who will be nominated.

But the animosity between the contenders means such a deal is unlikely, with both camps determined to battle all the way to the convention floor.

Not all super delegates are happy with the role thrust upon them, and several have said they must follow the voters. "If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party," said Donna Brazile, one super delegate.

"We have all been bombarded with e-mails from everybody and their mammas," Ms Brazile told the New York Times. "My niece called me today to lobby me; I didn't know what to say."

Ms Samuels seems happy enough, saying she was unhappy with Bill Clinton branding Mr Obama's opposition to the war a "fairy tale". But some think that more supers will follow Ms Samuels in switching sides.

And polls show that Mr Obama has a better chance than Mrs Clinton of beating the likely Republican challenger, John McCain.

"Super delegates want to win," Mr Noble said. "Virtually every poll shows Obama six, seven, eight points ahead of McCain. There is a pretty powerful argument that Mrs Clinton is on the wrong side of history, and these politicians (the super delegates] understand that."

'PIMP' INSULT TO CHELSEA CLINTON AS CAMPAIGNERS HIT THE PHONES

BOTH campaigns are now bombarding super delegates with phone calls.

Hillary Clinton has deployed her daughter Chelsea for the task, leading to controversy when a TV correspondent, who has since been suspended, suggested this amounted to Chelsea being "pimped out".

David Shuster, an MSNBC anchorman, was suspended for suggesting that Chelsea Clinton had been "pimped out" by the Clinton campaign, which asked her to phone super delegates on her mother's behalf. The phrase usually refers to prostitution.

Shuster has since apologised, but Mrs Clinton said she was not sure she would take part in a debate with Barack Obama on MSNBC scheduled for 26 February.

"I am a mom first and a candidate second and I found the remarks incredibly offensive," she said.

In the letter, which the campaign released, Mrs Clinton urged staff at NBC, which co-owns MSNBC with Microsoft, to "do your jobs as journalists and commentators and still keep the discourse civil and appropriate".

The Clinton camp's communications director, Howard Wolfson, has pointed to what he called a pattern of tasteless comments by MSNBC anchors about Mrs Clinton's campaign.