Number of lung cancer patients set to fall after smoke ban

Published on Monday 16 February 2009 20:51

RATES of lung cancer will drop by almost a fifth in the next 20 years, experts predicted today.

The effect of the smoking ban should mean rates in the UK fall from about 50 per 100,000 people to about 40 per 100,000 by 2024.

However, people are now living longer and lung cancer mostly strikes in older age groups due to the delay between smoking and onset of the disease.

This means the actual number of people with lung cancer is set to rise from around 38,500 to more than 41,600 by 2024.

Smoking causes about 90 per cent of lung cancers and men are more likely to suffer than women because they are more likely to smoke.

By 2024, the lung cancer rate among women is expected to drop, due to the smoking rate falling by half between the mid-70s and today. But the number of women diagnosed in the UK each year is expected to rise from around 15,500 to more than 18,000 by 2024.

Meanwhile, though the male lung cancer rate is set to drop by more than a quarter between now and 2024, the number of cases will remain at about 22,000.

Men's lung cancer rates were highest in the early 1970s. More than 150 men in every 100,000 were diagnosed with lung cancer, reflecting the peak in smoking rates in the 1940s and 50s.

Professor Max Parkin, co-author of the report for Cancer Research UK, said:

"As fewer people smoke we should see a lower rate of the disease."

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