Netanyahu outflanks US to stall peace talks

Published on Wednesday 9 September 2009 22:08

IT IS a common trait of politicians to say one thing and do another. But in dealing with peacemaking, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has varied the tactic: he simultaneously makes a concession and negates it, producing confusion and stagnation.

It's all part of a grand strategy of stalling Middle East peace talks until the international community gets tired or distracted. That way, Israel can retain whatever occupied West Bank territory it wants, although it may concede leftovers to a non-viable Palestinian "state" .

In June, in what was billed as his first concession, Mr Netanyahu ostensibly accepted the possibility of a Palestinian state. But he tacked on so many conditions as to practically annul that. He demanded Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, something never asked of Israel's peace treaty partners Jordan and Egypt – which he knows even moderate Palestinians will not accept, in advance of an agreement on solving the Palestinian refugee issue.

There was a demand that Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement oust Hamas from Gaza, which is impossible under current conditions. There was to be Israeli control over Palestinian airspace. There was also a demand that the Palestinian state be demilitarised, which is not in itself without merit, but contradictory to the demand to crush Hamas.

These conditions make meaningful peace talks, and the emergence of a Palestinian state as a viable entity, unlikely. Hard-right Israeli politicians applauded Mr Netanyahu.

Now he is negotiating with the Obama administration over a freeze on the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Just as the talks – which he has dragged out for six months – seemed to be coming to a head, his government this week approved hundreds of new housing units for settlers.

As Mr Netanyahu's aides also declared that Israel intends to finish 2,500 units already under construction, and that any "freeze" will be a matter of just months, this means that nothing of consequence will change on the hilltops of the West Bank. In the meantime, the land for a Palestinian state will continue to be steadily swallowed up.

The conventional wisdom is that Mr Netanyahu has resisted a real freeze of settlement construction because of fear of pro-settler, far-right elements in his party and coalition.

This problem is greatly exaggerated: the ministers in his cabinet just took office and are not ready to give up their seats. Also, he could easily turn for a parliamentary majority to the centrist Kadima party headed by Tzipi Livni, which supports a settlement freeze.

The real explanation for the stalling lies with Mr Netanyahu himself. He simply does not believe in solving the conflict or negotiating the thorniest issues in the dispute.

One of his confidantes, Zalman Shoval, an adviser to Israel's National Security Council, put it this way: "There is a certain mentality among Americans, a certain culture, that says every problem can be solved. The idea is that you analyse it and you find a solution within a given time whether in Yugoslavia, India and Pakistan or the Middle East.

"But there are problems that can't be solved. At best, they can be managed."

The Netanyahu approach, Mr Shoval says, is to build the Palestinian state from the "bottom up", primarily by boosting economic conditions in the West Bank. In other words, improve the economy during an unspecified period in which Palestinians are groomed for statehood. All the while, expand the settlements. As far as Mr Netanyahu is concerned, this could go on forever.

It is a very safe bet that Mr Netanyahu will continue to stall even after negotiations are formally relaunched. There will be many more "now you see it, now you don't" concessions. After all, he is getting away with it. And, by rendering the settlement freeze meaningless, he has now set the tone for subsequent diplomacy.

What is unclear is why Washington, which demanded a full settlement freeze, negotiations on core issues, and a solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is not using its leverage with Israel.

Barack Obama has been outmanoeuvred by a politician who inside Israel is sometimes known by the Hebrew word lachitz, someone who gives in to pressure. This trait was evident in July, when Mr Netanyahu rescinded plans for a VAT on fruit and vegetables following outcry from farmers, sellers and coalition partners. Unfortunately for Israelis and Palestinians now being doomed to years of further conflict, it seems that Mr Obama, too, is softer than those tomatoes.