Music: It's a bold new era but where will it all end?

Published on Friday 20 June 2008 19:59

WILL THERE be such a thing as a pop superstar in 20 years? There might not be such a thing as a major record label. EMI is counting on the success of Coldplay's new album to keep its share price up. Yet Coldplay, with their anti-corporate rhetoric and love of giving away music for free, look like a band itching to join the likes of Radiohead, Bob Dylan and Madonna in walking away from the labels that made them famous.

Who needs labels, after all, when you can release music yourselves, your own way, and keep all the money? Sorry, I mean "not be a slave to the Man".

The problem, of course, is that the amount of money to be made from recorded music is shrinking by the year. The last big music industry boom was when the advent of CDs meant labels could sell major artists' back catalogue all over again, while shamelessly overcharging for new albums.

The music industry now looks like a very different place. A whole generation of listeners has grown up with the notion that downloading whole albums for free is a legitimate thing to do. The labels can argue until they are blue in the face that illegal downloading is theft, but when major acts like Radiohead, Oasis and Prince are undermining this message by giving music away for free, who is going to listen?

All of these established acts know that the principal way to make money now is by playing live, and are attempting to cut their losses. But consumer dissatisfaction is festering in the live arena too, with constant grumbling about the amount of money bands are now charging for live performances – if you can see Prince at the O2 Arena for a very reasonable price, why should you pay a fortune to see Madonna?

The long-term implications of all this are fascinating and, for struggling indie musicians everywhere, quite refreshing. Perhaps in 20 years there will be no more pop superstars, because it will no longer be possible to earn a superstar's salary from playing pop music. Just imagine! No more bands blowing millions of pounds in advances on their epic masterpieces (goodbye Axl Rose). No more overhyped, over-rated "event" albums whose cover art is emblazoned on every bus stop (goodbye U2). No more cocaine-fuelled, underpowered retreads of past glories, disguised as major events, with stupid expensive cover art just for the sake of it (goodbye Be Here Now by Oasis).

Instead, imagine a level playing field, where people make music for its own sake rather than for maximum profit, listeners pay when they feel like it, and the music made is far more interesting and eclectic as a result, even if (or possibly because) it's done on a lower budget.

Just imagine! As people discover music on their own terms via live performance and internet sites tailored to individual tastes, rather than on other people's terms via HMV or Radio One, pop music will effectively become folk music once more.

And yes, there will be so many MySpace, Facebook, Last.FM bands competing to be heard that audiences for each will become more fragmented, more loyal, more discerning. Just imagine! No more stadium rock. No more bland pop that nobody really likes becoming successful because it's fed to us relentlessly by DJs and major labels.

It's a vision of the future dreamed up, obviously, by a snobbish obsessive. Meanwhile, in the real world, pop superstars will be picked by TV talent show votes, and will consist entirely of people doing Beatles covers in the style of Mariah Carey. Oh well.