Medics preparing for swine flu worst

Published on Wednesday 22 July 2009 09:51

UP to 2,000 people a week could die and half the Lothians' workforce be off sick in an "absolutely worst case" swine flu scenario, health chiefs have revealed.

Contingency plans are being drawn up for GPs across the area being swamped with an additional 5,500 patients, operations being cancelled to free up bed space, and up to a third of the population suffering should a vaccine not be ready.

NHS Lothian board members were given the stark warning during a secret meeting in North Berwick last month, the minutes of which have been obtained by the Evening News.

Dr Alison McCallum, the director of public health, said while not currently as bad as in other cities such as Glasgow and Birmingham, the situation was likely to worsen substantially.

If vaccinations are not in place by the time of the next wave, she warned, between 25 and 35 per cent of the population would be infected with the H1N1 virus "with 10 per cent requiring additional support or treatment", and up to five per cent needing hospital care. This would require nurses to go through rapid training to decide on bed priorities between those ill from swine flu and those scheduled for elective surgery, and that "difficult decisions would have to be taken". She added that the number of "excess deaths" in the area could vary between 170 and 2,000 a week at the peak.

Dr Dermot Gorman, swine flu vaccine programme director for NHS Lothian, stressed that such a figure was very much a worst case.

"We use a range of projections in our planning and the absolute worst case scenario was devised when we were planning for bird flu. The figure of 2,000 deaths for one week refers to the worst point of the worst possible scenario in planning. Reassuringly, all indications are that this disease is acting like common flu and while there can be complications for a number of patients, it is not as severe as first feared.

"However, we're not making any assumptions and are continuing to plan for this developing situation, including finalising the arrangements for the vaccination programme in Lothian."

Latest figures have shown that around 300 people have reported flu-like symptoms to their GP in the past week.

It now means the Lothians has one of the highest rates of infection in Scotland, with it likely that the majority of cases were suspected swine flu.

Microbiologist and expert on swine flu Professor Hugh Pennington, of Aberdeen University, said: "Of course these plans have to be made so they can be prepared in a worst case scenario, even if the chances of it happening are remote.

"It's a bit like planning for a nuclear strike. In some ways it has to be done, but no disease has behaved like this since the Black Death.

"The more imminent concerns would be things like hospital capacity and staffing, especially if half the workforce were to be off."

Your Say: Are you worried about swine flu?

Pauline Calder, 53, council worker, Drummond: "People seem to be getting het up over nothing.The symptoms are very mild in most cases."

Robert Cockburn, 79, retired, Currie: "I think it should be a concern. If everybody stuck to the correct procedures in hygiene, there would be far less chance of it spreading."

Michael Falckikov, 71, retired, Bruntsfield: "It's important not to be too alarmist. Most people have not been seriously ill from it and those that do are fine in a few weeks."