Major problem for generals as voters reject coup leaders

Published on Sunday 23 December 2007 20:18

THE party backing Thaksin Shinawatra, the ousted Thai prime minister, easily won the most seats in yesterday's election – a stunning rejection of the coup that booted out the telecoms billionaire in 2006.

With 93 per cent of the vote counted last night, the People Power Party (PPP) was heading for 228 seats in the 480-member parliament and said it would form a coalition government, although analysts do not expect a smooth transition in the deeply-divided country.

Samak Sundaravej, the abrasive PPP leader, said Mr Thaksin had phoned from exile to congratulate him on the result, which is a major problem for the generals whose campaign to consign him to political oblivion via the coup and corruption charges now lies in tatters.

"It is a victory for this country," Mr Samak said, adding that he would "certainly be prime minister. This country lost its freedom on 19 September last year for no good reason."

The big question is whether the army and the royalist establishment, whom the Thaksin camp claims was the brains behind the bloodless coup, will allow their arch-enemy to make a comeback by proxy.

Although some analysts said a strong PPP showing might trigger another coup, others believe the army-appointed government is more likely to try first to stymie the PPP by disqualifying candidates for vote fraud. The bigger the PPP win, however, the harder that will be.

"It depends how many red cards they have to issue," said Kevin Hewison, a Thai expert at the University of North Carolina. "If it's 40 or 50, it may be difficult, but if it's only ten or 20, they might be able to do it."

The Election Commission said it had received more than 750 complaints, but was taking only 157 seriously. It was not clear how many of these might lead to disqualifications.

Mr Samak did not foresee another coup as the new army chief, Anupong Paochinda, was a "good guy" committed to keeping out of politics. But the military would prefer a government led by the Democrats, the main opposition during Mr Thaksin's five years in power, even though most analysts say such a coalition would be weak and unlikely to last beyond a year.

The Democrats, led by the Oxford-educated Abhisit Vejjajiva – whom foreign investors want to see as the next prime minister – looked set to take 166 seats and conceded that PPP should be the first to try to form a government.

Financial markets hope the return of an elected administration will signal the end of a period of disappointing economic growth – likely to fall from 5.1 per cent in 2006 towards 4 per cent this year, the lowest rate in six years. The PPP has said it would lift capital controls imposed a year ago to rein in the rapidly strengthening baht.

At polling stations across Bangkok, voters said they were tired of more than two years of political confrontation between Mr Thaksin and Thailand's old elite, who considered the provincial, ethnic Chinese businessman a nouveau riche upstart.

"It doesn't really matter which party gets in, just as long as we have a government as soon as possible," said one voter.

The anti-Thaksin camp, which staged months of street protests before the coup, had vowed to renew its campaign if the PPP got anywhere near power. But it said yesterday it respected the vote and would resume its campaign only if the PPP tried to get corruption charges against Mr Thaksin dropped.

OUSTED LEADER REMAINS POPULAR

THAKSIN Shinawatra – who now owns the English premiership football club Manchester City – was pushed from power in a bloodless coup in September 2006, but retains widespread popularity.

The election had been billed as a return to democracy after 15 months of military-backed government.

Mr Thaksin's opponents, however, had sought to eradicate his political influence by measures such as changing the constitution to limit big political parties' power, and prosecuting the former prime minister on corruption-related charges.

Mr Thaksin, a 58-year-old billionaire, remains popular among the rural masses and lower-income urban residents to whom he offered cheap loans, virtually free medical care and village-based development programmes.

"The economy was prosperous when Thaksin was prime minister and I voted for the People's Power Party because the party leader promised to bring Thaksin back to the country," Pranee Teamsri, who owns a tailors shop on Bangkok's outskirts, said after emerging from a polling station.

The top rivals for next prime minister are a study in stark contrasts.

Sundaravej Samak, 72, is a veteran, sharp-tongued conservative who has been dubbed a political dinosaur by the Thai media.

He has been charged with involvement in corrupt deals while serving as Bangkok's mayor. His earthy style appeals to many, however, and he is seen as Mr Thaksin's place-man.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, 43, is regarded as an intelligent, honest politician – but one who lacks the common touch needed to connect with Thailand's mass electorate.

Critics say Mr Abhisit, British-born and educated at Eton and Oxford, is more comfortable in elite circles than wooing crucial rural voters.

The big question now is whether the army and the royalist establishment, whom the Thaksin camp says was behind the bloodless putsch, will stand by and watch its arch-enemy make a comeback by proxy.