Lesley Riddoch: Swithering voters seek certainties

Published on Friday 1 April 2011 15:39

The electorate seems unsure about what is reasonable to ask of Scotland, and so do the party leaders

WHAT will sway undecided voters on 5 May? It's very possible the chattering classes haven't a clue.

With 22 to 37 per cent of the electorate yet to make a firm voting decision, it's up to spin doctors and political commentators to predict the issues that will prove decisive.

And yet many failed to predict or even consider the chances of SNP victory in 2007.

So what's really worrying swithering voters this time?

Enduring concerns like cuts, jobs, education or health? Personal issues like leadership profile, sound-bite technique and wit? Topical subjects like the coalition's North Sea oil tax grab, the SNP's local income tax cover-up or Labour U-turns? Could the revelations of Libyan defector Moussa Koussa yet swing votes? What about weighty but obscure constitutional matters like Calman, fiscal autonomy or Barnett formula reform? And whose performance is really being judged: the SNP government in Edinburgh, the coalition government in London, or the Labour opposition in both?

After chairing last week's Scotsman Leaders' Debate I wonder if there is a single answer - or even a single electorate.

Voters - like TV viewers - have become completely segmented over recent years with the result that one person's "key issue" is another's red herring. And the worries that unite us - profound and deep-seated worries about the capacity of Scottish people and institutions - cannot be properly articulated in the combative format of the classic Leaders' Debate.

Jobs and the state of the economy are surely the biggest issues - but they were hardly raised in questions submitted before the Leaders' Debate.

The audience wanted to discuss early years' care, forestry investment, a service tax, special needs provision, minimum alcohol pricing, university funding, housing provision, nursing care, cross-border subsidies, nuclear energy and tax policy. An ambitious list for a 90-minute forum.

The single issue raised most often was the future of tuition fees north of the Border. And yet for many undecided voters, university funding is more mentioned and yet more irrelevant than the weather forecast for the south of England.

Of course, it's a mistake to read too much into the choices of one cross-section of the voting public. And yet I wonder if the omission of jobs, cuts and the recession as subjects from the Leaders' Debate - and my own reluctance to override the audience and raise them - may be connected to the Great Undecided Voting Mystery.

Scottish voters can be confident of a lively exchange of views on nuclear energy.They are guaranteed a titter if Tavish Scott is forced to decide whether he more closely resembles Steve Davis or Fred the Shred (both mistaken for the Scottish Lib Dem leader in recent public opinion surveys).

But when the structure of our working, productive lives is up for debate, somehow discussion stalls.

Everyone supports apprenticeships. Everyone supports renewable energy and the green revolution. Everyone thinks we must become more productive. Everyone wants to revitalise the construction sector (though the Greens wouldn't build new roads). Everyone talks up a knowledge-based economy and the need for a better skilled workforce. All - even Labour - say they favour a rebalancing of Scotland's traditional dependence on the public sector.

In short, all political leaders are more or less agreed on a direction of travel to restart the Scottish economy, and yet voters know that beaten up old Ford coupe will probably remain where it is - parked, with the ignition key missing.

Despite an enormous amount of cross-party agreement, Scotland's economy seems to be about as buoyant as our health. Not good.

The Dundee city centre tenement in which my own company was based until October is now completely empty. So are the office tenements on either side. So is the electrician's shop two doors down, the jewellery shop opposite and the giant Borders building.

Who has the vision to start a new business now? Who has the backing of their bank? Who is certain they can find the right staff if they do take a leap of faith? Who has the courage to turn a redundancy payment into seed capital?

Why does Scotland generally lag behind its neighbours in productivity? Why do the old glory days of Scottish invention, confidence and epic construction seem long gone?

What sort of performance is reasonable to expect from this little country?

The Scottish public doesn't know. And neither - we suspect - do party leaders. The SNP may be right to insist Scotland needs more economic levers. The unionist parties may be right to insist Calman and the Scotland Bill offer just that and will beef up devolution.

It's hard to know which set of technical measures to back if you can't decide whether Scots are basically hopeless or capable. Thrawn or thwarted. Subsidy junkies, or subsidisers. Slow, average or special.

And we can't.

The terrible shock to national confidence that followed the banking crisis still reverberates. News agendas may have moved on and headlines changed, but the big question remains.

How capable are the Scots? How could we have allowed a small group of bankers to ruin our self-confidence and reputation?

Do we need to be micro-managed from London or Edinburgh or freed from central constraint to devise better local solutions?

Are we up to the task?

Scots just aren't sure.

So it's easier to let the election agenda be set by focused, articulate people like university principals.Even though just as many young Scots are doing modern apprenticeships at college. Even though money invested in early years care will reap greater social dividends. Even though the biggest worry for current students is not fees but massive debts to cover living costs - and the grim, ever-lengthening graduate dole queue.

Scottish universities do have a high reputation. But China has overtaken the USA in producing more research material in English than any other nation and they already produce more engineers per head of population. The powerful use of knowledge in China is driving their economy forward.

Is the same true here?

Do Scottish universities produce outgoing people who are able to contribute fresh insights, new knowledge and old wisdom to solve Scotland's practical problems? Does academic knowledge find application in Scottish society?

If not, why not?

No wonder we choose to debate tuition fees instead.