Lesley Riddoch - Old Boys' Clubs must widen membership to have a global impact

Published on Sunday 13 July 2008 21:44

SO RUSSIA has done the "incomprehensible" and blocked Gordon Brown and George Bush over tough sanctions on Robert Mugabe.

Some commentators blame miscalculation by a tired British Prime Minister trying to shock world leaders with images of a tortured body to drive home his case for change in Zimbabwe. But perhaps all that's been revealed is Britain's real place in the world. And thanks to the legacy of Iraq, the reality of oil and the power of regional politics, it's nowhere near the helm.

The fuss made around the G8 summit at Gleneagles in 2005 may have distracted us from some important truths. The world's eight richest nations are not necessarily the world's most powerful nations, or indeed the world's most effective nations in getting any particular problem solved or contained.

And even for its members, the G8 is not the only club in town. Gordon Brown's call for sanctions against Zimbabwe did win support from Russia at the G8 summit, when the members committed themselves to an arms embargo, more financial and travel restrictions on Mugabe and 13 of his officials, and the creation of a UN special envoy.

But a few days later at the UN Security Council meeting, Russia, with China and South Africa, vetoed virtually the same proposals.

Illogical and frustrating – but should we worry? Amid all our own domestic crises, the British public may not be overly concerned about a former Communist state acting strangely over a remote foreign policy issue, especially when that issue is Zimbabwe, whose president derives extra life-force from every British attempt to thwart him.

But yes, we should worry. Economics has changed the world order but cigars and self-interest has dominated the G8 and the UN Security Council, and this latest voting debacle should sound major alarm bells.

What is the point of a G8 that managed to discuss Mugabe without an African leader present; global warming without the emerging world represented (thus ignoring half of global growth); the dollar without China (to whom the Americans are massively indebted) or oil prices without Saudi Arabia?

With this latest snub over Zimbabwe, the Old Boys' Clubs of world politics suddenly look old, irrelevant and impotent.

While Britain has been focusing on its own, slightly threadbare backyard with occasional grandstanding performances at the G8 and the UN, the rest of the world has been moving on – and the Cold War has been heating up all over again.

Russia appears to have no other motive for its sanctions veto than a succession of perceived diplomatic snubs, principal among them the UK's refusal to extradite Boris Berezovsky, the exiled Russian oil tycoon currently suing Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich for about 2 billion.

Berezovsky accuses Abramovich of acting as a strongman for the former president, Vladimir Putin, and forcing him to sell shares cheaply. Max Mosley's rather more sensational trial may have overshadowed the case here, but not a word will have been missed in the Kremlin as these champions of Yeltsin and Putin unravel details of the "aluminium wars" – the fight for Russia's state assets in which at least 100 people have died or disappeared.

In short, a trial in London is unpicking the recent origins of the Russian state. And the Kremlin probably doesn't like that any more than it likes Britain's decision to ignore 20 pleas to extradite Berezovsky on charges of fraud, embezzlement and incitement – even though Russia will not hand over Andrei Lugovoy, the main suspect in the London poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006.

Brown cannot surrender Berezovsky, who has been granted political asylum because he couldn't be guaranteed a fair trial in Russia. But ironically, since the Russian judiciary is indeed a tool of the state, Russians cannot understand why Mr Brown does not simply overrule the courts.

This all sounds trivial set against the great moral imperatives that normally surround British discussion of foreign policy – war, nuclear weapons, starvation and torture.

But something larger is driving Russia's actions – its UN Security Council veto, its reluctance to help the West with increased oil supplies and its threat of military action if America pursues a missile shield in Europe against Iran.

Russia is no great friend of Iran – a rival to its own position as top supplier of gas to western Europe. Russia is the new Soviet Union. And unnecessary American expansion in Europe could be the trigger for a new Cold War – even while all parties sit and sup eight-course banquets together at the G8.

Ironically, coming back to the intractable problems of Zimbabwe, pressure for change is being applied by the unlikeliest source – multinational oil company Shell.

It may pull out of the country after reports that Mugabe is reserving fuel at petrol pumps for supporters of his party. Meanwhile, as the international community huffs and puffs over what to do about Iran, the French energy group Total has delivered a body blow to Tehran by cancelling a huge planned investment in Iran's gas reserves "because the political risk is too high".

Last year's rogue nation, North Korea, is finally off America's list of states sponsoring terrorism and is receiving oil consignments after blowing up the cooling tower at its main nuclear power complex. And despite their governments' frozen diplomatic relations, BP and four Russian billionaires are back in talks on a joint bid for the country's fourth biggest oil producer, TNK-BP.

Economics has changed the world order and oil companies can shift foreign policy faster than unanimous votes at the G8 or UN – for good and for ill.

The patient application of sanctions can work – but not sanctions applied by a small, self-selecting group of world powers. The UN Security Council needs to be expanded to include representatives from the Islamic world and emerging nations.

And the 100 MDC members of the Zimbabwean parliament due to assemble this week need courage. After all the talking and voting, nothing else will help Mugabe's political opponents in their hour of need.