Leader: Syrian show of force

Published on 24/06/2012 02:58

THE escalation of the Syrian crisis represented by the shooting down of a Turkish fighter by Syrian forces is an unwelcome and ominous development.

Turkey’s promise to take “necessary” action in response is menacing but vague. At least in the initial hours after the incident, Turkey’s reaction was rather muted, which may indicate its aircraft was violating Syrian airspace, putting Ankara in the wrong. The episode also illustrates the fact that the Assad regime’s air defences, unlike Libya’s, are effective. Turkey is already arming the Syrian rebels and has allowed the creation of a command post in its capital. It has the second-largest army in Nato, with experience in fighting the Kurds.

Turkey is also emerging as the leading power in the Middle East, but it is divided domestically between secularists and Islamists, making it difficult to determine the likely limitations of its anti-Assad policy. Saudi Arabia is also arming the rebels which, since the Kingdom is not in the business of mobilising secular democracy, may give the West pause to consider the underlying character and aims of the anti-Assad forces. The danger is that foreign sponsors are strengthening the rebel forces, but only to the extent of making a prolonged civil war feasible, thus aggravating rather than solving the crisis. With Russia vetoing UN intervention, there is no solution in sight.