Leader: Blair's journey ended in a false dawn for Britain

Published on Wednesday 1 September 2010 14:58

Tony Blair once grandly proclaimed that he could feel the hand of history on his shoulder. With the publication of his memoirs he is now writing history, not making it. As we digest the content of his book, it is clear that Mr Blair has two purposes in mind.

The first is, like all former politicians, he wanted to write his version of history, and so this book is therefore partisan. Being charitable, it is to allow Mr Blair to explain his view of the great events in which he was involved. Being cynical, one might see it as self-justifying, not to say self-serving.

The second reason for publication is hinted at in its title, A Journey, as it describes what Mr Blair believes was his path to power - from his political awakening taking him into the Labour Party at the time coming close to political suicide, through to his leadership, the creation of "New Labour", modernisation and eventually Downing Street. But it does more than describe this journey, it also has a clear message for Labour, currently choosing a new leader: that any deviation from the principles of modernisation will be fatal.

What is most startling is the admission by Mr Blair that his relationship with Gordon Brown all but broke down towards the end of his term of office and most damning is his judgment of his chancellor as the master of political calculation, but with no political feelings; of having analytical but not emotional intelligence. Most damning of all is Mr Blair's view that unless Mr Brown carried the New Labour torch, he would be a disaster in power.

Although Mr Brown did pilot the United Kingdom through the hurricane winds of the banking crisis, his tenure at No10 did end in disaster, as his government disintegrated before an unbelieving public's eyes and allowed David Cameron, about whom voters were ambivalent, into power.

What is most extraordinary is that Mr Blair predicted disaster, but claims he could do nothing to prevent Mr Brown's succession. Distancing himself now from Mr Brown, as former chancellor Alistair Darling did recently, is not good enough - both men saw the dangers of a Brown premiership, both did nothing to stop it. They, and the rest of their party, paid a heavy price for such inaction.

But although it has attracted most of the headlines, the "TB-GB" relationship is not the only substantial element in the book. Mr Blair's lack of enthusiasm for devolution, suspected when Labour was in opposition but always strongly denied, is laid bare. He reveals he was never a passionate devolutionist and thought home rule a dangerous game to play, fearing nationalist sentiment could turn into separatist sentiment. It was a view some Scottish Labour figures privately shared, yet Mr Blair went ahead with the biggest post-war constitutional change, not out of principle, but because he thought it inevitable.

There are those who might see this attitude to devolution as practial and pragmatic.In moving his party away from its old Labour ways, towards public sector reform and embracing the private sector, Mr Blair was the ultimate pragmatist. Pragmatism can be useful if it means you are not tied to dogma or ideology, but in his decision to commit British troops to the invasion of Iraq his pragmatism deserted him.

A pragmatic politician who, to his credit, had scored a spectacular success in bringing peace to Northern Ireland, would have looked at the Province's history - engagement of tens of thousands of military and police to contain a small terrorist group - and concluded that though toppling Saddam might have been easy, subduing, and pacifying Iraq would be nigh on impossible.

Mr Blair became carried away with the undoubted previous success in foreign policy, in the former Yugoslavia and Sierra Leone, and his slavish embrace of George W Bush. The tragedy is that even now, looking back, Mr Blair cannot accept pragmatism gave way to a Messianic zeal for which many British soldiers paid with their lives.

There is much more in this book which will be analysed over the weeks to come. Mr Blair does have a fascinating story to tell about his journey. A political outsider, he became Labour's most electorally successful leader. He changed politics forever. But whether it is the fractured relationship with Mr Brown, the timidity which saw the power of the early years squandered, or the unpardonable folly of Iraq, the Mr Blair's journey ended with hopes dashed; expectations unfulfilled; dreams shattered; optimism overwhelmed by cynicism. Even with the hand of history on his shoulder, the new dawn for Britain under Mr Blair turned out to be a false dawn.