'Labour to win but SNP better'

Published on Friday 18 March 2011 17:46

LABOUR is heading for victory in the Holyrood elections, even though the SNP is favoured as the party to run the country, a new poll has revealed.

As Scottish leader Iain Gray and UK leader Ed Miliband attend a pre-election conference in Glasgow, the ICM poll puts Labour four points ahead of the SNP on the constituency vote and three ahead of the Nationalists on the list.

Calculations suggest that would hand Labour 57 seats, ten more than the SNP. The Tories would be on 15, the Liberal Democrats down six on ten, and the Greens still with two.

If repeated on 5 May, it would hand Mr Gray the chance to run a minority Labour government for the next five years.

However, while Labour described the poll as a "superb result", the Nationalists did likewise last night, describing the result as "fantastic".

They pointed to a separate question, which asked voters, regardless of their own party preference, which party they thought would do the best job of running Scotland successfully. Voters backed the SNP over Labour by 32 to 30 per cent.

That finding, together with the relatively narrow gap between Labour and the SNP compared with polls over the past year, will give the SNP encouragement that they might prosper once voters' minds concentrate on the election race in April.

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However, Labour will draw comfort from their continuing lead over the Nationalists, which could boost their own chances of clawing back many SNP-held marginals, particularly in the Central Belt.

Today, Mr Gray will make the case that a Labour-led Scottish Government will block policies led by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, such as those on tuition fees.

Pollsters said last night that the latest poll confirmed the trend of Labour staying ahead of the SNP.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said: "The Labour Party is clearly favourites to come first, and this poll confirms that.

"Having said that, there is clearly some doubt among the pollsters as to exactly how far ahead they are.

"For my money, the lead is less than 10 per cent."

He added: "But the worry for Labour is that as people focus on who they want to run Holyrood for the next five years, what has Labour got to say that will help consolidate that lead? I have to say that isn't clear at present."

Labour's election co-ordinator, John Park, said: "This is another superb poll that shows Labour with the momentum.

"There have been 14 polls in Scotland since the general election and Labour has been the largest party in 13 of them, and this makes it four in a row. But we are taking nothing for granted and there is no complacency."

SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon said: "This is a fantastic poll for the SNP. We have dramatically narrowed the gap with Labour, and are already ahead on the crucial issue of who is best to govern Scotland.

"Compared to our election-winning 2007 result, SNP support is higher," Ms Sturgeon added, "and we are only at the start of the campaign."