John Curtice: SNP has set a potential trap as it makes its orderly retreat

Published on Thursday 25 February 2010 21:45

ON COMING to power in 2007, the first SNP government had a clear central purpose. On St Andrew's Day, 2010, it would crown its time in office by giving the Scottish public the chance to vote for the party's cause célèbre – independence.

But now, nearly three years later, what do we have? Not a real referendum bill, just a draft one. Is it for a vote about independence? Well, yes… but it offers the prospect of a vote on the opposition's preferred policy too – with the First Minister campaigning in favour.

Will it be implemented any time soon? Certainly not before May 2011 – even if Mr Salmond can eventually find the votes to get his bill passed. It would appear the independence project is running into the sand. History's judgment on Mr Salmond's administration is seemingly destined to be "a government that failed to deliver".

But if the publication of the draft bill represents a retreat by the SNP, it is at least an orderly one. It leaves open the prospect, however remote, that a bill will eventually be passed. And it contains the potential to embarrass the opposition.

Mr Salmond's hopes of being able to hold a referendum have always rested on persuading the Liberal Democrats to come alongside.

The Lib Dems may not want independence, but they do want a stronger Scottish Parliament. Maybe they could be persuaded to back a multi-option referendum on strengthening devolution as well as independence. However, the Lib Dems decided to play a different game – to try, via the Calman Commission, to persuade Labour and the Conservatives to back giving the Scottish Parliament greater fiscal powers.

In this, they have largely been successful. But Labour's proposed timetable for implementing Calman is slow, while the Conservatives want to look at the details again. Calman may yet still fail to realise the Liberal Democrats' hopes.

Meanwhile, a potential trap has been laid for both Labour and the Conservatives. Suppose the SNP eventually makes Calman, rather than "devolution max", the proposal to be voted on together with independence. Imagine the opposition then votes the bill down. The result would be deeply ironic. The opposition would have voted down the chance to hold a referendum on a policy they themselves favour – whereas the SNP would have given the public its say.

That could prove a rather difficult stance to defend.

• John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Glasgow.