James Mitchell: What will become of the union in next ten years?

Published on Saturday 27 June 2009 19:44

The SNP may become the natural party of government without achieving its goal of independence

NONE of us know what Scottish politics will look like in ten years. But we can already identify forces that will shape the future. Massive pressure on public finance is the most obvious. Whichever party is in power at whatever level will face more challenging problems than for a very long time. The consequences for devolved Scotland will hinge on two matters: culpability and capability.

It should be relatively easy for a Scottish Government to evade much responsibility so long as the public sees London as responsible for the size of its budget. That will hardly change under Calman's proposals. Until a real dose of fiscal responsibility is attached to devolution, London is most likely to be the loser in the blame game.

The Conservatives look set to win the next UK election. The failure to allow open debate over the last decade and a half has built up pressure that will explode into bitter battles that will keep Labour out of power for some time. It is impossible to predict precisely what kind of Labour Party will emerge in a decade, but Scottish Labour will likely adopt of soft nationalist line – especially after a long period of Tory rule.

The economic context the Tories will inherit frees them from previous public spending commitments and opens up the opportunity to embark on a radical programme for government. While the need for tighter spending is acknowledged at a general level, there will be opposition to each and every proposed cut. There will come a point when the public will tire of the Tory argument that Labour's economic incompetence justifies poorer services – and that will happen in Scotland much sooner than south of the border.

Relations between London and Edinburgh have worked reasonably well despite some naive expectations that different parties in power would damage inter-governmental relations (IGR). The real test was always going to come in a difficult economic times. The vast sums that oiled the wheels of IGR in its first decade will not be available. Indeed, we will be paying the costs for this generosity in the years ahead. Brown's legacy to devolution will be an era of poor financial IGR. But there is much Holyrood can do without massive injections of funds. A greater sense of Scottish distinctiveness – not only in policy – is certain when David Cameron becomes Prime Minister.

Opinion has coalesced around support for 'more powers'. An independence referendum held today would likely be defeated, but no-one can confidently predict the outcome of a referendum after many years of Tory rule. Cameron might be tempted to hold a quick independence referendum to kill off the issue. This would be hazardous and would seriously embarrass his party in Scotland.

But the more likely course will see Scotland gaining powers. The SNP may become Scotland's natural party of government without achieving its goal of independence in a decade's time. Scottish devolution is now firmly embedded and with or without more powers, Scotland will appear a different place. The union will survive but in a very different form – an ever-looser union.

• James Mitchell's new book 'Devolution in the United Kingdom' has just been published by Manchester University Press.