Israel must withdraw and cease fire

Published on Sunday 4 January 2009 21:04

OF THE countless strikes and counter-strikes between Israel and Palestinian extremists, few could have been more foreseeable – and arguably more avoidable – than Israel's invasion of the Gaza Strip in the opening days of the New Year.

Not only did Israel make no secret of its invasion preparations, but it went to considerable lengths to make clear such an invasion was uppermost in its thinking. Moreover, the six week long changeover period between two American presidents has effectively taken a swift US response out of the calculus.

If there was a time for effective diplomatic intervention it was surely between the moment that the aerial bombardments began and the tanks began to roll. Western leaders could have prevailed upon Israel to hold back on a land incursion while Middle East states, led by Egypt, prevailed upon the Hamas leadership to end the firing of rockets at Israeli townships as the political machinery for serious negotiations were put in place.

Sadly, little about this enduring conflict is amenable to a peaceful resolution. Hamas has continued its rocket attacks targeting Israeli border communities.

It is this that taunts and goads Israel into a response which is intended to remove a terrorist threat, but which, in the eyes of the world, now appears disproportionate, indiscriminate and destructive.

As a result, international protest is rising and Tel Aviv portrayed as the bully and oppressor. Israel may well view this as an inevitable cost of the measures it feels compelled to take in its own defence against militants who deny the right of the Israeli state to exist.

But there is a more nuanced and neutral concern that Israel is doing itself no favours. While armoured tanks and ground troops may offer the prospect of a military solution, the danger is that it will radicalise the more moderate Palestinians and swell the ranks of the extremists. And it is this risk that makes the Israeli endgame particularly problematic. Since it cannot reasonably hope to silence all the rockets fired against it, how does it disengage from this escalation with anything approaching an effective or assured result?

If the invasion is, as Israel insists, targeted at specific and identified armed Hamas enclaves, the best immediate hope is that the operation is concluded swiftly and followed by speedy withdrawal in the next few days. For Israel to contemplate a prolonged incursion would be to risk a polarisation that would be ruinously counter-productive. Its actions now court the danger of Israeli troops becoming the effective recruiting sergeants for yet more Hamas militants.

However, for external pressure to have effect in hastening withdrawal, it needs to be accompanied by parallel pressure by Middle Eastern leaders on those continuing to fire rockets into Israel. Withdrawal and cease-fire are now the two urgent and compelling steps that need to be taken.