Is this the end of Labour's dominance in its heartlands?

Published on Friday 2 May 2008 23:37

IN THE words of one expert, the location and scale of Labour's losses were "astonishing".

Who, after all, would have expected it to lose Reading – a stronghold for 21 years? Or see the Conservatives gain Southampton, where there are two Labour MPs, including Cabinet minister John Denham?

But most of all, the damage inflicted on the party in South Wales took some understanding.

Labour lost in Merthyr Tydfil, Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen and Caerphilly and it lost the only authority it held in north Wales, Flintshire.

Now it has a majority in just two of the 22 councils in Wales – Neath Port Talbot and Rhondda Cynon Taf.

Tony Travers, an elections expert at the London School of Economics, said: "What is clearly happening in Wales is that the Labour dominance is being seriously eroded in exactly the way its dominance in Scotland has been eroded – by a mix of a long-term Labour government becoming unpopular and the PR system giving other parties a share of power."

Overall, Labour lost nine councils and 331 councillors. By comparison, the Conservatives seized control of 12 councils and added 256 councillors to their position in town halls across England and Wales.

Tory wins included crucial victories in the north of England – previously unwinnable areas such as Bury and North Tyneside – as well as Solihull, Harlow, Maidstone and the Vale of Glamorgan.

The Liberal Democrats, who feared a poor showing having performed well in the same elections four years ago, made a net gain of one council and 34 councillors – enough to ensure there will be no awkward questions for leader, Nick Clegg.

Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said the results allowed the Tories to escape the shadow of the darkest days of John Major's government and Black Wednesday in 1992, when sterling was forced out of the European exchange rate mechanism.

He said: "The opinion polls have been suggesting over the last month or so that the Tories are in a stronger position than at any time since 1992. Now we have a set of local election results that are also the best for the Conservatives since 1992.

"It is not a story that means the Conservatives are bound to win the election, but it is a story that suggests the Conservatives are now more popular than they have been at any time since Black Wednesday."